Large part of Arkansas under enhanced risk for strong storms this week; tornadoes possible, forecasters say

A severe weather threat was issued for Tuesday, Feb. 28, for the northern portion of Arkansas.
A severe weather threat was issued for Tuesday, Feb. 28, for the northern portion of Arkansas.

Much of central and northern Arkansas are under an enhanced risk for severe weather including tornadoes Tuesday into early Wednesday morning, the National Weather Service said.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Arkansas on notice for the possibility of strong thunderstorms. The portion under an enhanced risk is north of a line stretching roughly from Mena to Arkadelphia to Pine Bluff to West Memphis. Other parts of the state are under a low or marginal risk for severe storms.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will start to develop Tuesday afternoon ahead of a cold front expected to blow through the region later that evening, according to a weather service alert. Cold air combined with certain wind conditions could create severe storms capable of dropping large hail, the alert said.

Those storms bring the chance for damaging winds and tornadoes.

"There will be a threat of nighttime tornadoes," meteorologist Brian D. Smith wrote in the alert. "It is important to maintain a heightened state of awareness, and be prepared to take action if a watch or warning is issued for your area."

As the cold front passes, the chance of severe weather will diminish. Any severe storms on Wednesday will likely occur east of a line stretching from El Dorado to West Memphis. The front is expected to be east of the Mississippi River by midday Wednesday.

However, a lot remains up in the air. If clouds don't disperse ahead of the front, the atmosphere could stay "capped," the alert said.

That means the sky would stay cloudy and temperatures would not spike enough to cause really energetic storms, like the kind that occur during a summer heatwave, said meteorologist Sean Clarke.

All of the "ingredients" are there for strong storms — and even strong tornados — to occur, Clarke said. But most weather systems need a "trigger" for harsh storms to develop, he added. Warm temperatures in the mid-70s could be that trigger, he said, though they'll have to wait and see if temperatures will get that high.

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