Nov. 8 was the biggest upset in U.S. political history. What comes next from the unconventional, un-politician, real estate mogul? In foreign policy, is he a Manchurian candidate for the bareback horseman Vladimir Putin ?
As the nation catches its battered breath until Jan. 20, speculation on trade is exploding. It was front and center in Trump's campaign. Will this holiday season be a lull before a trade war storm from a 35 percent tariff on imports, making those cheap Chinese products bought as Christmas gifts at Wal-Mart 35 percent higher-priced? Will Acxiom and Tyson face a retaliatory tariff tax in trying to expand their software and chicken markets in China?
In late November, newspaper headlines in Arkansas and across the globe blared alarm over President-elect Donald Trump taking a congratulatory call from Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen. The Sydney Morning Herald in Australia warned that the call could threaten a cold war between the U.S. and China with severe worldwide economic and security implications.
The call was orchestrated. It was arranged in advance between Taiwan and Trump's team. It provided Trump an early opportunity to send a signal to China and to Iran.
Metaphorically speaking, taking Taiwan's congratulatory call was a missile across the bow of the Chinese gunship.
The irony in this metaphor is that Trump was not warmongering. Rather, he is demonstrating to the Chinese that there are non-military levers he will use to re-balance global relationships that he views as out of balance.
When China built military airfields in the South China Sea on islands in international waters, President Barack Obama watched without objecting. When Obama drew a "red line" in Syria, Bashar Assad--supported by Iran--crossed it. There has been no explicit administration retaliation.
Obama was taking a long view that other nations took as passive or conciliatory. Trump so far opts to talk tough.
Obama created some fear among NATO allies that they could not count on the U.S. Trump is trying to create fear among America's enemies.
In terms of China, what Trump dislikes is (a) its history of manipulating the remimbi lower so to increase its exports. China has unfettered access to Arkansas and the U.S. market, but it has layers of restrictions on imports into China. And (b) Trump wants to deter China from forcing U.S. technology companies to disclose their trade secrets as a condition for entering China.
Will Trump's negotiating style make America stronger overseas, or bring on a 1930s-era depression? In his 1980s best-seller The Art of The Deal he boasted about his approach. First stake out an extreme position. Then negotiate backward to get a win-win compromise for both sides.
For example, in the Republican primaries, Trump frequently criticized Japan for not paying enough in being protected by 55,000 American troops. In reality, Trump is not that concerned whether Japan pays more than its current 200 billion yen. What Trump really wants is a more aggressive Japanese partnership in combating China's assertiveness.
Trump supporters take him seriously but not literally. The Never Trumpers took him literally but not seriously.
The reality is that he is unpredictable on purpose. Because then no one, not the Chinese, not the Iranians, can be sure what he might do.
Only Trump knows what he'll do--and even he does not know what. Because he is transactional. He does not have a coherent ideological vision a là Reagan that made him predictable in the 1980s.
Trump doesn't have a lot of time to produce. Consider Lyndon B. Johnson's mandate. In 1964 he won 486 electoral votes to Barry Goldwater's 52. He carried the popular vote by 16 million; Trump lost it by 3 million.
LBJ also had much bigger party margins in the House and Senate. So he was able to push through his Great Society legislation in the first six months. But by that fall's legislative break, he was getting major pushback within his own party in both the Senate and the House. His administration stalled, and ultimately was destroyed by Vietnam.
So Trump has until next summer to prove himself. By then the multiple contradictions between Trump the Campaigner and Trump the Cabinet and policy will be clear.
For now, enjoy the post-Christmas discounts on the cheap Chinese products in Target and Wal-Mart. Everything changes Jan. 20.
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Joe O'Brien of Little Rock is an international management consultant.
Editorial on 01/02/2017