It's becoming clear that for the next few years U.S. foreign policy will be shaped by the struggle among Republican regulars, populist ethno-nationalists and the forces of perpetual chaos unleashed by president-elect Donald Trump's attention span.
The Republican regulars build their grand strategies upon the post-World War II international order--the U.S.-led alliances, norms and organizations that bind democracies and preserve global peace. The regulars seek to preserve and extend this order and see President Vladimir Putin of Russia as a wolf who tears away at it.
The populist ethno-nationalists in the Trump White House do not believe in this order. Their critique--which is simultaneously moral, religious, economic, political and racial--is nicely summarized in the remarks Steve Bannon, the incoming senior counsel for Trump, made to a Vatican conference in 2014.
Once there was a collection of Judeo-Christian nation-states, Bannon argued, that practiced a humane form of biblical capitalism and fostered culturally coherent communities. But in the past few decades, the party of Davos--with its globalism, relativism, pluralism and diversity--has sapped away the moral foundations of this Judeo-Christian way of life.
Humane capitalism has been replaced by the savage capitalism that brought us the financial crisis. National democracy has been replaced by a crony-capitalist network of global elites. Traditional virtue has been replaced by abortion and gay marriage. Sovereign nation-states are being replaced by hapless multilateral organizations like the EU.
Decadent and enervated, the West lies vulnerable in the face of a confident and convicted Islamofascism, which is the cosmic threat of our time.
In this view, Putin is a valuable ally precisely because he also seeks to replace the multiracial, multilingual global order with strong nation-states. Putin ardently defends traditional values. He knows how to take the fight to radical Islam.
It's interesting to read Trump's ideologist, Bannon, next to Putin's ideologist, Alexander Dugin. It's like going back to the 20th century and reading two versions of Marxism.
One is American Christian and the other orthodox Russian, but both have grandiose, sweeping theories of world history, both believe we're in an apocalyptic clash of civilizations, and both seamlessly combine economic, moral and political analysis.
"We must create strategic alliances to overthrow the present order of things," Dugin has written, "of which the core could be described as human rights, anti-hierarchy and political correctness--everything that is the face of the Beast, the Antichrist."
"We, the Judeo-Christian West, really have to look at what [Putin] is talking about as far as traditionalism goes," Bannon said, "particularly the sense of where it supports the underpinnings of nationalism."
If Trump were as effective as Putin we'd probably see a radical shift in U.S. grand strategy away from the postwar global consensus and toward an alliance with various right-wing populist movements simmering around the globe.
But Trump is no Putin. Putin is theological and cynical, disciplined and calculating, experienced and knowledgeable. When Bannon, Michael Flynn and others try to make Trump into a revolutionary foreign policy president, they will be taking on the entire foreign policy establishment under a leader who may sympathize with them but is inattentive, unpredictable and basically uninterested in anything but his own status at the moment.
I'm betting the foreign policy apparatus, including the secretaries of state and defense, will grind down the populists around Trump. Frictions will explode within the insanely confusing lines of authority in the White House. Trump will find he likes hanging around the global establishment the way he liked having the Clintons at his wedding. In office he won't be able to fixate on the Islamic State group but will face a blizzard of problems and thus be dependent on the established institutions.
The result may be a million astounding tweets but substantively no fundamental strategic shift--not terrible policy-making, but not good policy-making either.
I suspect Steve Bannon is going to fail to corral the peripatetic brain of Trump. But he may have more influence on the next generation.
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David Brooks is a columnist for the New York Times.
Editorial on 01/13/2017