The picture of Chicago in much of the country—and even in much of the Chicago area—is a city awash in blood amid a surge in murder and other violent crime. “Is this a wartorn country?” asked candidate Donald Trump during a debate in September. Though Trump is famously prone to hyperbole, the perception has a real basis—a spike in homicides to a level not seen since the 1990s. The question is: Why has it happened?
In an attempt to find answers, researchers at the University of Chicago Crime Lab have compiled a report, released Tuesday, with a wealth of data. One striking fact is that in December 2015, homicides were actually down from a year earlier. But the arrival of the new year flipped an invisible switch: Homicides in January 2016 soared by 67 percent over the previous January, and “each month that followed in 2016 saw more homicides compared to the same month in 2015.” By the time the year was over, Chicago had recorded 58 percent more killings than it had in 2015.
The mayhem has left much of Chicago untouched. Of the 77 community areas, the crime lab report says, 31 saw either a decrease in homicides or no increase. Five neighborhoods—Austin, Englewood, New City, West Englewood and West Garfield Park—accounted for nearly half of the increase. It’s often assumed that teenage gang members are behind it all.
But the researchers found that the average age of those arrested for a homicide or shooting was 26, and the percentage with a gang affiliation fell to 67 percent from 73 percent.
It’s not hard to come up with theories to explain the epidemic. But the U. of C. experts debunk many of those commonly heard. They note that the weather wasn’t appreciably warmer, poverty and racial segregation didn’t deepen and illegal guns didn’t suddenly become more available.
The jump in homicides did follow close behind several notable events: the release of the video showing the police fatally shooting Laquan McDonald, the launch of a Justice Department investigation of the Chicago Police Department, a new policy on street stops resulting from a city agreement with the American Civil Liberties Union and a decline in the number of stops.
The study leaves the most important question—how to reverse the trendunresolved. What can be said with some confidence is that better relations between police and residents of the most crime-ridden communities would foster more cooperation and less conflict, which in turn could help stem the violence.