Although rains have soaked much of the state this month, three western Arkansas counties are considered to be in "extreme drought" and farmers are nervous that dry conditions will hinder spring planting.
More rain is forecast for southeastern Arkansas today and Sunday as upper-level cold air from the Plains clashes with warm, moist air over southeast Arkansas, Mississippi and Alabama. The National Weather Service said there is an increased chance of thunderstorms, hail and high winds in those areas.
There is also a slight risk for tornadoes, said meteorologist Willie Gilmore of the National Weather Service in North Little Rock. He said isolated tornadoes, or "spin-ups," could form quickly, touch down and travel short distances before dissipating.
Monticello is predicted to receive between a half-inch and three-quarters of an inch of rainfall before the storm system moves out Sunday evening. Other areas in the southeast could see up to a half-inch of precipitation.
All of the state is forecast to receive some rainfall over the weekend.
Widespread storms and showers are expected along the Gulf Coast and into the lower Mississippi River Valley. Another storm system is predicted to produce rain and heavy winds in the Florida Panhandle this evening.
Temperatures climbed to the mid- to upper 60s in the southern half of the state Friday, warming the area for today's storms.
"When it warms up in January, whoops, there's instability," Gilmore said.
A second, weaker system is forecast to roll into the state Tuesday evening, producing more chances of rain.
Despite the forecast, farmers in Crawford County aren't relieved.
"We were supposed to get a lot of rain last weekend, but we didn't get much at all," said Rick Carson, owner of the Alma Farm Supply in Alma. "Whenever we're promised a big rain, we just laugh about it. We know it's not coming."
The U.S. Drought Monitor, an organization based at the University of Nebraska at Lincoln that compiles weekly drought conditions for the United States, reported this week that 73 percent of Arkansas is in some form of drought.
The worst of the drought is in Crawford, Sebastian and Franklin counties, where areas are 4 to 5 inches below average rainfall over a 30-day period.
A wider swath of Northwest Arkansas that includes 10 counties is classified as being in "severe drought" by the monitor, meaning it is 3 to 4 inches below average rainfall over 30 days.
A thin strip that runs from the northeast corner of the state to the southwest corner is drought-free, the monitor reported.
In January 2015, the state was considered to be totally free from drought.
"We've not had a good rain since August," Carson said. "There's no runoff to fill the ponds. They're half-full now.
"This is a bit unusual for this time of year," he said. "Farmers are concerned. We had a good start last year, but we don't have much fall pasture and there's no rain ahead."
State Desk on 01/21/2017