ROGERS -- Northwest Arkansas' economy, like the rest of the state and country, is on track for relatively healthy growth in the coming year, but politics and other worldwide trends risk disrupting that growth, several economists said Friday.
Hundreds of business executives, civic leaders, students and others attended the University of Arkansas' annual business forecast luncheon. Three economists, including the university's Kathy Deck, gave updates, cautious guesses and occasional warnings about the economy at the local, national and international levels.
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For more information about the University of Arkansas Center for Business and Economic Research and find resources about Northwest Arkansas’ economy, go to cber.uark.edu.
Many points touched on the new administration of President Donald Trump, who has promised a sharp departure from the previous administration's policies. Meanwhile, technology, global climate and the nature of jobs have all been changing for years and show no signs of stopping, the economists said.
"I can't think of a better time to hear from our distinguished guests," said Shelley Simpson, chief marketing officer for J.B. Hunt Transport Services and the luncheon's moderator.
Northwest Arkansas has seen "amazing" growth in population, jobs and per capita income in the past decade, said Deck, who directs the university's Center for Business and Economic Research. Health care and professional service jobs should lead the way this year, though the region and state must do more to help people adapt to increasingly complex work and grow outside urban centers, Deck said.
"We continue to have rising living standards even as people drive and flock to us," she said. "What we really want is for people to live to their maximum potential."
Deck predicted almost 5,000 jobs would come to the state this year, nearly entirely in Washington and Benton counties. It's a fine pace but somewhat slower than in recent years, she said.
"I now see us circling and trying to avoid the turbulence," she said.
There could be plenty of turbulence to go around, said Stuart Mackintosh, who directs an international economic consulting firm called the Group of Thirty.
Trump's withdrawal from a trade deal with several Asian nations, the United Kingdom's gradual departure from the European Union and other political events show the world seems to be tilting toward a "them vs. us" perspective that could lead to more direct economic conflict between nations, Mackintosh told the group.
China's mounting debt and the aging population of Japan could rattle the globalized economy as well, he said.
Closer to home, the United States has seen almost eight years of consistent, steady growth in the size of the economy, consumer spending and returns on investment, said Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, former chief economist in the U.S. Department of Commerce.
Gradual growth is more sustainable than a boom, Hughes-Cromwick said. Trump and Congressional Democrats' competing proposals to boost spending on roads and other infrastructure could help keep it going, but the Trump administration's proposal this week for a new tax on imported goods could hurt the economy, she added.
Troy Blackston, senior vice president at First Western Bank, said he left the event hopeful.
"It's a 30,000-foot view," he said of the forecast, saying the wide range of possible outcomes this year is fairly typical. "I think it's going to be a good year for us here locally."
He added, "I think we're blanketed, so to speak," buffered from at least some of the whims of the national economy.
NW News on 01/28/2017