BEIJING -- The world's biggest coal users -- China, the United States and India -- have increased coal mining in 2017, in a departure from last year's record global decline and a setback to efforts to rein in climate change emissions.
Mining data show that production through May was up by at least 121 million tons, or 6 percent, for the three countries compared with the same period last year. The change is most dramatic in the U.S., where coal mining rose 19 percent in the first five months of the year, according to U.S. Department of Energy data.
Coal's fortunes had appeared to hit a new low less than two weeks ago, when British energy company BP reported that tonnage mined worldwide fell 6.5 percent in 2016, the largest drop on record. China and the U.S. accounted for almost all of the decline, while India showed a slight increase.
The reasons for this year's turnaround include policy shifts in China, changes in U.S. energy markets and India's continued push to provide electricity to more of its poor, according to industry experts. President Donald Trump's advocacy for coal has played at most a minor role, they said.
The fuel's popularity waned over the past several years as renewable power and natural gas made gains and China moved to curb dangerous levels of urban smog caused by burning coal.
Whether coal's comeback proves lasting has significant implications for long-term emission-reduction targets, and for environmentalists' hopes that China and India could emerge as leaders in battling climate change.
While analysts expect the U.S. reversal to prove temporary, they agree that India's use of coal will continue to grow. They're divided on the forecast for China over the next decade.
Industry representatives say the mining resurgence underscores coal's continued importance in power generation, though analysts caution its long-term growth prospects remain bleak.
The U.S., China and India produce about two-thirds of the coal mined worldwide, and China and India also import coal to meet demand. India's production expanded even during coal's global downturn.
"If you look at those three countries, everyone else is irrelevant in the scheme of things," said Tim Buckley, energy finance director for the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
Burning coal for power, manufacturing and heat is a primary source of the carbon dioxide emissions that scientists cite as the cause of climate change. Reducing such emissions was a critical piece of the 2015 Paris climate accord that Trump announced this month he wants to exit.
Almost every other nation continues to support the deal, including China and India. China, India and the U.S. produce almost half of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Coal accounts for almost half of greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels, according to the Global Carbon Project. China is by far the world's largest coal user, consuming half the global supply.
China has committed to capping its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, and some have suggested it might accomplish that up to a decade earlier. Xizhou Zhou, a senior energy analyst with IHS Markit who is based in Beijing, said the recent uptick in coal production raises doubts about such optimism, but he added that China is still expected to meet its 2030 deadline.
"Coal consumption will continue to increase, mainly driven by Asian countries," Zhou said. "We're seeing a recovery starting this year and an increase until the mid-2020s before you see coal plateau globally."
China's production rose more than 4 percent through May, according to government figures, compared with a drop of more than 8 percent for the same period a year earlier.
Business on 06/27/2017