The headlines came fast and furious earlier this week. The online folks could hardly keep up. First, 14 million kicked off insurance! Next, 24 million kicked off insurance! We were waiting for 34 million kicked off insurance! But the headline writers must have needed a break at that point.
So which is it? Are 14 million folks going to be "kicked off" insurance, or 24 million, and why the difference? The next day the newspapers explained it: According to the Congressional Budget Office, the new health insurance plan to replace Obamacare would mean 24 million fewer Americans would have health insurance 10 years from now. And the CBO figures 14 million fewer by this time next year.
Which sounds pure-dee Republican, too. How mean they must be.
Until one reads the details.
In the days to come, there will be a lot of details coming out about the GOP's health care plan, and how politicians in Washington will change it, amend it, knead it, and generally make it more difficult to understand. Today, let's just take the part about all those people "kicked off" their health insurance.
Obamacare penalized uninsured people who didn't buy a plan. It was called the Individual Mandate. The GOP's plan, as described by House Speaker Paul Ryan, does away with that penalty. Thus, without the government stick hovering over their heads, fewer people are expected to buy health insurance. That's a main factor in why the CBO says millions fewer will be covered.
"Our plan is not about forcing people to buy expensive, one-size-fits-all coverage," Speaker Ryan says. "It is about giving people more choices and better access to a plan they want and can afford."
There are other factors, certainly. The CBO says reduced federal subsidies and reductions in Medicaid will mean fewer covered people too, eventually. But let's not forget that a lot of Americans--mostly young Americans, probably single and in good shape, with other priorities than health insurance--will just choose to spend their money elsewhere.
Is that wise? Maybe not. But it's their decision. And should be in a free country.
Some of our friends on the right think the new health-care plan doesn't go far enough to repeal Obamacare. We trust our friends on the left to cry bloody murder if a comma is changed in the law. But Americans should get used to all these debates. They're going to come fast and furious in the coming months.
The big problem--or one of the big problems--is that the Republicans can't just repeal and replace, as they've promised. To kill Obamacare and try to pass another bill to completely replace it would take 60 votes in the Senate, and Republicans can't get there today. So they'll have to amend Obamacare over and over again by simple majority until they get something that--eventually, maybe, finally--works for the American people. And doesn't bankrupt the country in the process.
This ain't gonna be easy. When it comes to health care, politics and a free and rowdy people, few things are. Strength.
Editorial on 03/16/2017