6 months dry, state is put on drought alert

U.S. considers ‘long-range’ label; farmers look to skies

A map showing drought conditions in Arkansas.
A map showing drought conditions in Arkansas.

Dry conditions in western Arkansas for the past six months have federal officials who monitor weather patterns across the U.S. on the verge of declaring the state to be in a long-term drought.

The U.S. Drought Monitor, an agency at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln that records weekly drought conditions, said 86 percent of Arkansas is now in some form of drought. The worst area is in Northwest Arkansas, especially in Sebastian, Franklin and Crawford counties, where areas are 12 to 14 inches short of average rainfall over the past 180 days.

"All you can do is hope it rains," said Matt Fryer, a Crawford County extension agent. "It's a deal to overcome."

Only the extreme northeast corner of Arkansas and sections of the south-central and southeastern parts of the state are drought-free. Last March, the entire state was drought-free.

The National Weather Service in North Little Rock is forecasting rain for this evening and again during most of next week. However, the systems are fast-moving, said meteorologist Tabitha Clarke, and the areas most needing rain may receive only a half-inch of rain.

"It's dry in Arkansas," said Eric Luebehusen, a meteorologist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture in Washington, D.C., who wrote this week's U.S. Drought Monitor report. "It's a telling story."

He said he and other officials are watching conditions in Arkansas, along with deteriorating drought conditions in the northeastern U.S. as well as in northern Georgia, Alabama, eastern Tennessee, Colorado and Kansas.

"These are the worst areas in the country," he said.

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The western half of Arkansas has seen an average of only 40 percent to 45 percent of normal rainfall since September, Luebehusen said. Ratcliff, in Logan County, is 13 inches short of its average rainfall over the past 180 days and Fort Smith is 12.7 inches below its average, he said.

"That's a pretty remarkable feat to accomplish in the winter and early spring," he said.

Stream flows in western Arkansas are at near-record lows, Luebehusen added.

The USDA rates stream flow on a scale of 1 to 100, with 1 being the lowest mark. The flow of the Petit Jean River in Booneville was rated at 1.6 this week, which is near the lowest ever recorded there, he said.

Flows at the Petit Jean River in Danville and Dutch Creek, both in Yell County, each was rated at 2.1.

Beaver Lake is 8 feet below its normal pool level and Table Rock Lake and Bull Shoals Lake are each at 7 feet below normal, Clarke said.

"We consider six months of drought as a transition between short-range and long-range drought," Luebehusen said. "Arkansas is right on that mark."

Yell County Judge Mark Thone spent Thursday driving around his county looking at dusty fields.

"It's extremely dry," he said. "The good news is that a lot of farmers are getting field work done. They usually can't get into their fields this time of year because it's always wet."

Farther west, Buddy Lollis watched for rain at his Lollis Tree Farm in Rudy in northwest Crawford County.

"We've got 12,000 trees dying," he said. "We don't irrigate. We depend on rain. It's been since last September since we've had a decent rain.

"We're praying for rain."

His wife, Connie Lollis, said she wasn't hopeful about rain in the forecast.

"Seems like every time we hear that, the rain divides over us," she said. "It either goes to the north or south of us."

Fryer said Crawford County farmers are seeing farm ponds evaporate. They also are using hay sooner than usual because pasture growth has been stunted by the lack of rainfall.

"Farmers are the most optimistic people on earth," he said. "They always think it'll be better. It was better last fall, but then all of a sudden it went dry."

Forecasters are calling for two rain-producing systems to enter the state tonight and again early next week.

"There is such a deficit to make up," Clarke said of the rainfall shortage. "This will be good, but it won't clear the drought. The issue began last fall, and we've not seen any replenishment since then."

Long-range forecasts issued by the Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Md., indicate Arkansas could see a warmer and drier summer than usual.

The center, which is under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, reported that there is a 60 percent to 70 percent chance Arkansas and much of the southern U.S. will experience above-normal temperatures and less rainfall than normal through October.

Luebehusen, who also will write next week's drought report, said he will monitor Arkansas' rainfall over the next several days.

"If the rain does not materialize this week in Arkansas, we will be expanding the drought in that state," he said.

State Desk on 03/24/2017

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