Japan's exports up 14% in October

Imports grew even faster at 19%, with trade gap down 40%

At a seaside construction site in March, workers stand near the pier of a container terminal in Tokyo. Japan reported Monday that its imports rose almost 19 percent from the same month a year earlier while exports were up 14 percent. The country’s trade surplus dropped more than 40 percent.
At a seaside construction site in March, workers stand near the pier of a container terminal in Tokyo. Japan reported Monday that its imports rose almost 19 percent from the same month a year earlier while exports were up 14 percent. The country’s trade surplus dropped more than 40 percent.

TOKYO -- Japan's exports grew 14 percent over a year earlier in October on strong demand for vehicles, electronics and machinery. However, customs data released Monday showed even faster growth in imports of oil, gas and coal that caused the trade surplus to fall more than 40 percent from the year before.

"Japan's exports are on an increasing trend thanks to a solid global recovery," said Norio Miyagawa, senior economist at Mizuho Securities. "I think semiconductors related to the production of the new iPhone are one of key drivers."

"We can count on exports as the engine driving Japan's economy in coming quarters," Miyagawa said, forecasting growth of 1 percent to 1.5 percent in the three months through December.

"I do get the impression that the pace of growth in exports slowed down a little last month, but there's still a steady underlying expansion," said Atsushi Takeda, an economist at Itochu Corp. in Tokyo.

"Overall semiconductors and autos lead exports, and for the moment it looks like we don't need to be too worried about those sectors," he said.

As China recovers momentum following a slowdown, demand from the region's biggest economy is helping to breathe fresh life into its neighbors' economies.

Exports are helping to drive a moderate recovery in Japan, the world's third-largest economy, as its factories struggle to keep up with demand for cars, electronic components and manufacturing equipment.

While the value of exports has recovered to the levels of a decade ago, volumes are below those highs.

At the same time, Japan's imports have risen thanks to higher costs for crude oil and other commodities: surging 19 percent from the same month a year earlier in October to $57 billion versus exports of $59 billion.

China displaced the U.S. as Japan's biggest export market in October, as shipments to Asia's biggest economy jumped 26 percent to $12 billion. Its imports from China rose 14 percent to $14 billion.

Japan's surplus with the U.S. jumped 11 percent to $5.75 billion on exports of $11 billion, led by chemicals and machinery. Imports from the U.S. climbed 3.1 percent to $5.7 billion, with the biggest growth in imports of fish, soybeans, coal, liquid petroleum gas and iron ore.

Imports of crude oil, gas, coal and other fuels surged 37.5 percent from a year earlier to $11 billion. Rising prices and the weakening of the Japanese yen over the past year contributed to that increase.

"Looking ahead, the export climate index remains elevated and suggests that export growth will continue at a similar pace as the 6.4 percent year-on-year increase recorded last quarter," Marcel Thieliant of Capital Economics said in a commentary.

But the economies of Japan's major trading partners are likely to slow in the next year, he said. "We therefore we expect real export growth to slow from 6 percent year-on-year this year to 3 percent in 2018."

Information for this article was contributed by Bloomberg News.

Business on 11/21/2017

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