U.S. airline investors, already absorbing the worst monthly stock performance in a year, are bracing for more disappointment.
A Standard & Poor's index of the five biggest U.S. airlines plunged about 7.5 percent in August, wiping out about $10 billion in market value. Shares fell as a price war that started between United Continental Holdings Inc. and heavy discounters spread to more carriers and markets.
Analysts see more pain ahead. Delta Air Lines Inc. on Tuesday cut its third-quarter guidance for a closely watched gauge of pricing power -- revenue for each seat flown a mile -- as well as for operating margin. UBS Group AG predicts the latest skirmish will force some other carriers to do the same. The trend is worrisome because the major airlines have been boasting that industry consolidation would lead to steadier profits and smoother shareholder returns, not repeated fare battles with low-cost rivals.
"We've taken it on the chin the last 30, 45 days, because there's no question United started cutting fares to ward off Spirit, Frontier, whoever, and I guess it's spread among all the airlines cutting fares," said Gary Bradshaw, a portfolio manager at Hodges Capital Management in Dallas, which owns stakes in the major airlines. "It happened overnight almost."
Hurricane Harvey, which shuttered Houston's airports for several days last week, will be another drag on earnings because of flight cancellations and a spike in jet-fuel prices.
Delta's unit revenue this quarter is now seen rising 2 percent to 3 percent, instead of the previous 2.5 percent to 4.5 percent. Operating margin is expected at 16.5 percent to 17.5 percent instead of as much as 20 percent earlier. Delta blamed "a slow recovery in domestic" ticket prices purchased close to travel and higher fuel costs linked to a hurricane a year earlier.
United and Southwest Airlines Co. will probably have to cut their third-quarter unit revenue forecasts the most, said Darryl Genovesi, a UBS analyst.
The fare battle that started this summer between United and heavy discounters like Spirit Airlines Inc. and Frontier Airlines Inc. has since spread to others, including American and Southwest. The S&P airlines index has dropped more than 14 percent since June 30.
Industry pricing declined in July from the previous month, and August "appears to have deteriorated further," Cowen & Co. analyst Helane Becker said in a note, citing meetings with airlines last week. While carriers expect improvement in the last three months of the year compared with this quarter, "the pricing trends are currently not favorable."
Hurricane Harvey is only expected to exacerbate the industry's woes. Jet-fuel prices jumped 26 percent from Harvey's Aug. 25 landfall in Texas through Friday after the shutdown of two pipelines carrying fuel and refined products from the Gulf Coast. Jet fuel usually is the second-largest operating expense for airlines, behind employee compensation.
Airlines "can truck in fuel, potentially look to other pipelines as a source, but that's another headache for the industry to try to deal with," Southwest Chief Executive Officer Gary Kelly said in an interview last week. While there's no immediate danger of a shortage, Kelly said he was "absolutely" concerned by the pipeline closures.
Some carriers are expected to use a Cowen transportation conference that starts today in Boston to update outlooks for third-quarter revenue for each seat flown a mile, most likely to the low end of earlier guidance, Becker said. Others may include updates on the gauge, known as unit revenue, in monthly traffic reports this week.
The current price competition probably won't lead to a long downturn for the major airlines, said Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analyst David Vernon. Many of the battles are on the most competitive routes, including New York to South Florida, that already had lower fares.
Wall Street "is looking at the most competitive part of the market and using that as an analog for the entire industry," Vernon said.
The advent of discounted "basic economy" fares should allow the major airlines to compete selectively with Spirit and others without lowering fares across a wide range of routes and price categories, he said.
Hodges is taking a bullish approach. Instead of cutting airline shares, the firm added to its position, Bradshaw said. He said Delta increased its dividend by 50 percent earlier this year, which suggests the airline is confident it won't be dragged down by a fare war.
"They're telling you that these earnings are going to continue to stay strong, continue to grow," Bradshaw said.
United expects unit revenue to be somewhere between down 1 percent from a year earlier to up 1 percent, while Southwest sees the measure up 1 percent. Investors were disappointed by both forecasts, made in July, and by Southwest's plan to grow more quickly than expected. United President Scott Kirby declined to comment on the unit-revenue outlook in an interview last week, but he confirmed the carrier would provide an update this week.
American has said the measure will be up in a range of 0.5 percent to 2.5 percent from a year earlier, while Delta expects it to rise 2.5 percent to 4.5 percent.
American and United will continue to match heavily discounted fares at their hub airports, executives from both carriers said. Basic economy, which allows passengers to bring only a small carry-on item, helps dull the impact because airlines limit the number made available.
"We are going to compete against anyone that chooses to compete head-to-head against us," Kirby said in an interview last week. "That's the right strategy."
Business on 09/06/2017