Possible Shiite corridor worries Israelis

Gains in Syria by Assad’s troops, Iranian-backed Hezbollah heighten fears

Israeli soldiers cover their ears as an artillery unit fires shells towards southern Lebanon from a position near Kiryat Shmona in northern Israel, near the border with Lebanon, in this July 21, 2006, file photo. With President Bashar Assad seemingly poised to survive the Syrian civil war, Israeli leaders are growing nervous about the intentions of his Iranian patrons and their emerging corridor of influence across the region.
Israeli soldiers cover their ears as an artillery unit fires shells towards southern Lebanon from a position near Kiryat Shmona in northern Israel, near the border with Lebanon, in this July 21, 2006, file photo. With President Bashar Assad seemingly poised to survive the Syrian civil war, Israeli leaders are growing nervous about the intentions of his Iranian patrons and their emerging corridor of influence across the region.

PILON MILITARY BASE, Israel -- As Syrian President Bashar Assad holds the upper hand in his country's civil war, Israeli leaders are growing concerned about the intentions of his Iranian patrons and their emerging corridor of influence across the region.

Israel has long identified Iran as its biggest threat, citing its development of long-range missiles, its hostile rhetoric and suspicions that it has attempted to build a nuclear weapons program. But gains by Syrian troops and their Iranian-backed allies have given those concerns new urgency.

Israel fears the establishment of a Shiite corridor, with land links from Iran to Lebanon, allowing the movement of fighters and weapons across the region. At the heart of those fears is Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia that battled Israel in a monthlong conflict in 2006. Since then, the Iranian-backed group has beefed up its arsenal of rockets and missiles and become more battle-tested after years of fighting in Syria.

In an address Tuesday at the U.N. General Assembly, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Iran was spreading a "curtain of tyranny and terror" across the region, adding that Israel would defend itself.

"We will act to prevent Iran from establishing permanent military bases in Syria for its air, sea and ground forces. We will act to prevent Iran from producing deadly weapons in Syria or in Lebanon for use against us. And we will act to prevent Iran from opening new terror fronts against Israel along our northern border," he said.

Israel last week wrapped up its largest military exercise in two decades, mobilizing about 30,000 troops to train for the next war against Hezbollah.

The commander of the exercise, Maj. Gen. Tamir Hayman, said that despite Hezbollah's arms buildup, the balance of power has greatly shifted in favor of Israel since 2006.

"If Hezbollah's capabilities have grown linearly, ours have grown exponentially, in intelligence, in targets and in the ability to attack," he said. If fighting resumes, "the damage to Hezbollah will be severe, mortal and comprehensive."

He said he was pleased with the performance of his troops, adding that the two-week exercise should send a powerful message of deterrence.

"We have no intentions at this time to go out and defeat Hezbollah. Our goal is to maintain the quiet and stability in the north," said Hayman, the commander of the army's Northern Corps.

Israeli forces on Tuesday shot down what Israel said was a Hezbollah surveillance drone that veered too close to the Syrian border with Israel. The military said the unmanned aircraft was Iranian-made and was launched from a Damascus airport. Forces shot it down near the Israeli-controlled side of the Golan Heights.

After six years of fighting that killed at least 400,000 people, Assad's forces have gained the upper hand as they recapture territory from opposition fighters and the Islamic State militant group.

Assad has received crucial support from an air campaign by Russia and from Iran and Hezbollah, which have fighters on the ground. Those allies are expected to play key roles in postwar Syria.

"The vector is quite clear right now, with the Syrian army, Hezbollah and the Shiite militias gradually regaining control of large swaths of the country," said Chagai Tzuriel, the director general of the Israeli Intelligence Ministry.

Israel has said any permanent presence of Iranian or Hezbollah troops along the Syrian border with Israel would cross a "red line," hinting that it would be willing to take military action if needed. Tzuriel warned of a "regional conflagration."

He said Russia could play a positive role because it wants to stabilize Syria. He said the Russians realize that Iran could create friction not only with Israel but also with the Sunni majority in the region.

"I think there is a good chance that it will limit and restrain Iran, Hezbollah and the Shiite militias," he said.

But that is far from clear. Netanyahu last month flew to Russia to discuss Syria with President Vladimir Putin, but Israeli media reported that Russia rejected an Israeli request to keep the Shiite forces at least 40 miles from the border. Neither side has commented on the reports.

Israeli Intelligence Minister Yisrael Katz recently claimed at a security conference that Iran and Syria are working on an agreement that could put an Iranian naval base, airport or army bases on Israel's doorstep, a major boost for Hezbollah.

"The Iranians may bring different kinds of missiles to Syria, and a large and well-equipped force of Shiite militias may settle there, including tens of thousands of Afghans, Pakistanis, Iraqis and Syrians whose goal is to threaten and battle Israel," Katz said. "Hezbollah will train and command the Shiite militias."

Israel has attempted to stay on the sidelines during the Syrian war. But it has admitted to carrying out dozens of airstrikes on what are believed to be shipments of "game-changing" weapons, such as guided missiles or anti-aircraft systems, bound for Hezbollah. Syria accused Israel of carrying out a recent airstrike against a Syrian military facility, possibly linked to either missile production or chemical weapons.

Information for this article was contributed by Bassem Mroue of The Associated Press.

photo

AP/RICHARD DREW

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel addresses the 72nd session of the United Nations General Assembly, at U.N. headquarters, Tuesday, Sept. 19, 2017.

A Section on 09/21/2017

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