HOT SPRINGS -- Shortly after Quip won the Tampa Bay Derby on March 10, his trainer Rodolphe Brisset began to consider the colt's next step toward the Kentucky Derby.
Brisset quickly narrowed his choices to the Grade II Blue Grass Stakes, run at Keeneland Racecourse in Lexington, Ky., on April 7, and Oaklawn Park's Grade I $1 million 1⅛-mile Arkansas Derby for 3-year-old horses, scheduled to start at 6:18 p.m. today.
At first, the Blue Grass looked like Brisset's choice, primarily because current Kentucky Derby future-book favorite Justify -- owned in part by Quip's owners Winstar Farm and China Horse Club -- was targeted for the Arkansas Derby, but Justify was rerouted to Louisville through the Santa Anita Derby on April 7 in Southern California. As a result, Brisset said he and Quip's team chose the Arkansas Derby.
Their choice involved more than Justify's new route.
"It's one or the other," Brisset said. "The Blue Grass is a Grade II, but you have four weeks before the Derby, and we all know that's not the easiest one to win. It's either that or you go for the Grade I, but you only have three weeks. If you do that, maybe you're already a Grade I winner. It makes a big difference.
"When you only go three weeks, it's more of a day-to-day training effort. You have to take a bigger look and make sure you don't do too much, because you only have three weeks."
Four weeks would provide more time for a Kentucky Derby qualifier to recover from injuries or ailments.
"You don't think of that, because you always hope that everyone always comes back fine," Brisset said. "If it does happen, and it's a small thing, four weeks will help to heal it, but at the end of the day, you don't want to deal with all that. There are pros and cons to everything, but you have to just look at the horse and try to do what's best for the horse."
Magnum Moon, winner of Oaklawn's Rebel Stakes on March 17, is the 8-5 morning-line favorite in the expected Arkansas Derby field of nine. From the rail out, the field is 30-1 Beautiful Shot, with jockey Richard Eramia and trained by Keith Desormeaux; 20-1 Machismo, with Scott Spieth and trained by Anthony Quartarolo; 10-1 Tenfold, with Victor Espinoza and trained by Steve Asmussen; 15-1 Dream Baby Dream, with Luis Contreras and trained by Asmussen; 2-1 Solomini, with Flavien Prat and trained by Bob Baffert; Magnum Moon, with Luis Saez and trained by Todd Pletcher; 30-1 Plainsman, with C.J. McMahon and trained by William Van Meter; 9-2 Quip, with Florent Geroux and trained by Brisset; and 6-1 Combatant, with Ricardo Santana Jr. and trained by Asmussen.
With the 50 Road to the Derby points Quip earned from his win in the Tampa Bay Derby, he has likely assured himself a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.
Asmussen, a lock to win his ninth Oaklawn training title, has three in the Arkansas Derby with a shot at Kentucky Derby qualification, led by Combatant, who finished second in Oaklawn's Smarty Jones and Southwest Stakes, and third in the Rebel Stakes.
"I feel good about Combatant," Santana said. "He keeps getting better. I think he's going to have a good chance in there."
"He's looking better than ever, and he'll have to be with the company," Asmussen said. "It's a great race. The competition is good, but he's doing wonderful."
Rick Lee's Arkansas Derby analysis
PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS;COMMENT
6 Magnum Moon;Saez;Pletcher;8-5;Ran his unbeaten streak to three when convincingly winning the Grade 2 Rebel, and subsequent workouts have been impressive.
5 Solomini;Prat;Baffert;2-1;Less than perfect trip when second best in the Rebel. He is battle tested in Grade I races and is a big threat.
8 Quip;Geroux;Brisset;9-2;Won three of four races, including the recent Tampa Derby, and his lone loss was a troubled trip in the Kentucky Jockey Club.
9 Combatant;Santana;Asmussen;6-1;Finished in-the-money in four consecutive two-turn stake races, and a contentious pace will work in his favor.
3 Tenfold;Espinoza;Asmussen;10-1;Unbeaten in a two-race career for winning connections, and the son of Curlin should love the added ground.
4 Dream Baby Dream;Contreras;Asmussen;15-1;Finished second in the Sunland Derby, but his only victory was a maiden win at Churchill.
7 Plainsman;McMahon;Van Meter;30-1;Finished third behind Tenfold in an allowance tune-up, and he is therefore badly overmatched.
2 Machismo;Spieth;Quartarolo;20-1;Beaten 20 lengths at big odds in last weekend's Blue Grass, and this seems like a desperate move.
1 Beautiful Shot;Eramia;Desormeaux;30-1;A minor stake-winning sprinter who does not give the impression he wants to go this far.
83rd Arkansas Derby
Today, post time 6:18 p.m., $1 million purse, Grade I, 1 1/8 miles, 3-year-olds:
PP HORSE JOCKEY ML
1 Beautiful Shot Eramia 30-1
2 Machismo Spieth 20-1
3 Tenfold Espinoza 10-1
4 Dream Baby Dream Contreras 15-1
5 Solomini Prat 2-1
6 Magnum Moon Saez 8-5
7 Plainsman McMahon 30-1
8 Quip Geroux 9-2
9 Combatant Santana 6-1
Sports on 04/14/2018