In the next few months, Arkansas freshman center Daniel Gafford will gather the information needed to answer a question best put forth in 1982 by The Clash, a punk band from London.
The Clash asked simply: Should I stay or should I go?
There is no wrong answer to the question as Gafford (6-foot-11, 233 pounds) is projected by many to be a mid-to-late first-round pick. ESPN's Jonathan Givony currently has Gafford as the 15th pick to the Phoenix Suns. Thus, he will instantly become a rich young man if he decides to enter the NBA draft.
"Gafford's tremendous physical tools and significant upside will likely mean his name is called somewhere in the top 20 on draft night, if he has a strong pre-draft process," Givony writes.
Givony makes note of the 2018 draft likely to have eight big men selected in the first round.
"Unfortunately the glut of big men in this class (plus the lack of wings around the league) makes it difficult for him to crack the lottery in this team-needs-based mock draft," Givony concludes. "The Suns are one team that could potentially look for depth at the center spot, adding much-needed rim protection and finishing ability as Alex Len enters free agency."
Sports Illustrated's Jeremy Wood projects Gafford going 19th to the Portland Trailblazers while CBS's Garry Parrish and Reid Forgave, along with NBAdraft.net, don't believe Gafford will come out this season, an opinion that I currently hold as well.
"Though Portland remains invested in Zach Collins at this stage of the draft, Gafford's physical potential might be too much to pass up as a long-term project," Wood writes. "The Blazers' crowded cap sheet skews heavily toward perimeter players, and given the overall dearth of NBA-ready bigs in this class, Gafford is a good first-round dice roll. When he's active, he's a constant threat to catch lobs and block shots, and he has freakish bounce for a guy his size. He's the type of player who will excel in workouts and sniff late lottery range just on upside."
The 15th pick in the first round is guaranteed a starting salary of $2,725,698 while the last pick in the first round is guaranteed just more than $1.6 million. The No. 1 pick in the NBA draft starts at $8 million a year while fifth picks gets more than $5.3, with $3 million going to the player selected 10th.
Why is that important? Because there is a dearth of big men in the 2019 draft. Hence, Gafford is projected as the No. 7 pick in the 2019 draft by NBAdraft.com with only Oregon signee Bol Bol and Maryland signee Bruno Fernando as big men projected above him.
Wood believes that would be the best course of action for Gafford, who could make millions more over his first three-year contract if he jumps into the Top 10.
"Late-blooming, high-upside bigs have a way of sneaking their way into premium draft territory (like Justin Patton and D.J. Wilson) and Gafford appears a candidate to fit that bill," Wood said.
"While he's still foul-prone and has to be fit into a concept, Gafford's ability to cover ground and nimbly switch screens at his size makes him a no-brainer developmental big man. He'd benefit from two years of school and likely won't slide into an NBA rotation for a couple years, but Gafford has firmly established himself as someone to watch."
Staying two years would be the same path followed by his mentor, former Razorback and current Chicago Bull Bobby Portis. Gafford acknowledges that's a factor.
So do you jump if you are a likely late first-round pick and take a chance to get the money now, or do you bet on yourself to make even money next season?
"Raw with limited feel, Gafford won't look ready by March," writes Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman. "But that may not matter to teams willing to chase the long-term upside that's tied to his tools, athleticism, instincts and motor."
Gafford is averaging 11.6 points and 6.1 rebounds and has 57 blocks. The block total is third-best for a freshman in school history, with Hunter Mickelson's top mark of 70 within his reach this season. He will have to make his decision by the April 22 NBA early entrant eligibility deadline.
There would seem to be very little reason not to go ahead and put his name into the draft just as his teammates Jaylen Barford and Daryl Macon last season.
That would allow him to work out for different NBA teams, go through the NBA Draft Combine in May in Chicago and get feedback on where he needs to improve.
Early entrants have until June 11 to take their name out of the June 21 draft.
There were 162 underclassman who put their name in the draft in 2016, and 91 took their names out. That increased to 182 early entrants in 2017 with more than 100 taking their names out.
I fully expect Gafford to be one of those who puts his name in this season. The only question is will it stay or will it go.
Sports on 02/22/2018