Rick Lee Oaklawn picks and analysis

First Post: 1:30

SATURDAY'S RESULTS

MEET UPDATE 11-36 (30.6 percent)

LEE'S LOCK Tyfosha in the ninth

BEST BET Unbridled Giant in the sixth

LONG SHOT Circle Unbroken in the first

*educated guess

**things to like

***plenty to like

****confident choice

1 Purse $20,000, 6 furlongs, 4-year-olds and up, claiming $6,250

**CIRCLE UNBROKEN easily defeated $16,000 claimers just three races back at Churchill, and he is dropping in class for sharp connections and scratched Saturday in favor of this spot. PATRIOTIC AMERICAN won two of his last four races at Remington, and he has also won a race at Oaklawn in two previous seasons. WICKED RASCAL is an exceptionally quick gelding who has earned competitive Beyer figures, and he finished less than 1 length behind the second selection last month at Remington.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

9 Circle Unbroken;Cohen;Diodoro;9-2

10 Patriotic American;Thompson;5-2

4 Wicked Rascal;St Julien;Caldwell;6-1

6 Oliver G;Cabrera;Gustafson;10-1

7 Battered;Canchari;Anderson;6-1

5 Royal Lion;Vazquez;Villafranco;4-1

1 Como Se Llama;Eramia;Broberg;12-1

3 Why Smile;Wethey;Young;15-1

8 Kerugma;Luzzi;Martin;15-1

2 Macanao;Morales;Garcia;15-1

2 Purse $22,000, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, maiden claiming $16,000

***EVER SPECIAL finished second on a wet track at Keeneland, and the two-time beaten favorite has worked fast and often since arriving at Oaklawn. New trainer Ingrid Mason is off to a red-hot start. BLOOM BABY led for 6 furlongs before tiring in a one-turn mile at Churchill, and the second-time starter is cutting back in distance and represents a high percentage stable. KLASSIE CONNECT rallied from far back in a second-place finish at Churchill, and the steadily improving filly gets in light with a winning apprentice rider aboard.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

6 Ever Special;Felix;Mason;7-2

1 Bloom Baby;De La Cruz;Cox;3-1

9 Klassie Connect;Morales;Hiles;5-1

12 Eidolon;Vazquez;Villafranco;10-1

3 Good Wishes;Roman;Williamson;5-1

5 Mia Mo;Prescott;Silva;10-1

10 Backside Belle;Court;Fires;10-1

11 Sturn Donna;Pompell;Delong;15-1

8 C C's Baby Girl;Cabrera;Williams;20-1

13 Diastole;Birzer;Gleason;12-1

2 Vyera;Canchari;Van Berg;15-1

7 Hot and Ready;Bedford;Ives;30-1

4 Seeking Her Mine;Eramia;Milligan;30-1

3 Purse $20,000, 6 furlongs, 4-year-olds and up, claiming $6,250

**MCQ is running for a price of $6,250 after winning three $10,000 claiming races in 2017. He was claimed last time out by trainer Ingrid Mason, who wins with 31 percent of her first-back purchases. CHOCOLATE WILDCAT appears to be the controlling speed in the race, and he produced a big winning effort in February at Oaklawn. He will move up if the track is wet. PISTONE STEEL is dropping to the lowest claiming price of his career, and he benefits from a recent race over the track. One of his best races can win at this level.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

6 McQ;Hill;Mason;5-2

8 Chocolate Wildcat;Prescott;Jansen;8-1

5 Pistone Steel;Parker;Puhl;12-1

3 Sky Flight;Cabrera;Caldwell;9-2

2 Tyoga Six;Pompell;Haran;6-1

7 Sky Wonder;Luzzi;DiVito;3-1

1 Greeleys Charm;Thompson;Donaldson;15-1

4 Sugar Buzz;Cohen;Matthews;12-1

9 Mister McGehee;McMahon;Garcia;12-1

4 Purse $32,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds and up, maiden claiming $40,000

**ZAEVION finished a close second in his last two sprint races at Remington. He earned the field's fastest Beyer figure and is dropping into the maiden-claiming ranks for the first time. STORMY FORECAST has shown good early speed in a pair of second-place finishes, and he is finally good enough to put races together after a history of layoffs. FAREEQ was compromised by a wide trip in a deceptive effort at Ellis, and he too is dropping out of the maiden allowance ranks for the first time.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

1 Zaevion;Eramia;Moquett;4-1

3 Stormy Forecast;Quinonez;Von Hemel;9-2

9 Fareeq;Gazader;Peitz;5-1

5 Single Gem;Stevens;Van Berg;5-1

4 King's Reckoning;Parker;Puhl;12-1

8 Dry Martini;Cohen;Hobby;8-1

11 Tempo Seeker;Loveberry;Ortiz;8-1

10 Uncle Pancho;Hill;Milligan;12-1

6 Pray for Kitten;Goncalves;Litfin;15-1

7 Shanghai's Song;McMahon;Holthus;10-1

2 Classic Pursuit;Thompson;Chleborad;15-1

5 Purse $77,000, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 4-year-olds and up, Arkansas-bred, allowance

***MS FIFTY FIRST ST. has not raced since April but easily defeated a strong maiden field in his career debut in February at Oaklawn. He also appears to be the controlling speed, and trainer Al Stall Jr. is exceptional at bringing horses back fit and ready to win. DUTCH PARROT is only a neck from being unbeaten in three races against state-bred rivals, and she is battle tested in stake races. The possible favorite may be prepping for a route. MINISTRY defeated the top selection by winning the 2017 Rainbow Miss, and she is a logical threat if fit after a long break.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

5 Ms Fifty First St.;Santana;Stall;9-2

8 Dutch Parrot;Vazquez;Van Meter;5-2

2 Ministry;Pompell;Gonzalez;4-1

14 Blushing Bella;Santana;Hornsby;10-1

6 Easter Indy;Thompson;Martin;6-1

7 Chilean Queen;Eramia;Broberg;8-1

3 Jeri Bella;Loveberry;Ashauer;12-1

4 Fastanista;Cabrera;Martin;12-1

10 Dixie Flyer;Birzer;Chleborad;15-1

9 Miss Barnham;Canchari;Witt;20-1

12 Beautiful Honduras;McMahon;Brennan;20-1

1 Aunt Gayle;Stevens;McKellar;20-1

13 Avisionofchocolate;Court;Fires;20-1

11 Mary Lou;Goncalves;Altamirano;30-1

6 Purse $20,000, 1 1/16 miles, 4-year-olds and up, claiming $6,250

****UNBRIDLED GIANT recorded an impressive six wins in 2017, and the freshened runner is priced to win and hails from a stable that aggressively spots horses. MIZZ WIZZ was running races last winter and spring good enough to win this claiming price, and he has been working very fast after two poor performances at Indiana. BELVIN broke a bit tardy in his last two races at short odds, and the class dropper drew a favorable route post and has the class to win.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

8 Unbridled Giant;Maldonado;Diodoro;2-1

3 Mizz Wizz;Sanjur;Contreras;15-1

2 Belvin;McMahon;Caldwell;5-1

1 Transformative;Eramia;Broberg;6-1

6 Can't Remember;Santana;Kordenbrock;10-1

7 Benediction;Morales;Garcia;5-1

5 Lotto Cat;Vazquez;Caldwell;12-1

11 Mojo Street;Cohen;Matthews;10-1

4 Oriental Crown;Cabrera;Ortiz;15-1

10 Greyjoy;Canchari;Martin;15-1

9 Ms. D's Last Storm;Goncalves;Altamirano;15-1

7 Purse $75,000, 1 mile, 3-year-olds, maiden special weight

***TAKE THAT FOR DATA had to overcome a slow start in a late-running second-place debut on turf at Churchill, and he is adding blinkers and picks up Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens. APPLEWOOD lost all chance when he reared at the break when fifth at Churchill. He is an experience two-turn runner with the fastest Beyer figures. TAYLOR'S SENSE was beaten less than 1 length in a two-turn debut at Remington, and the lightly raced colt has top connections and continued improvement is expected.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

7 Take That for Data;Stevens;Cox;2-1

4 Applewood;Cohen;Williamson;3-1

3 Taylor's Sense;Vazquez;Asmussen;7-2

6 Shane Zain;Thompson;O'Neill;9-2

5 Southsider;Sanjur;Williamson;8-1

2 Strike Rate;Santana;Asmussen;10-1

8 Pryor;Cabrera;Moquett;15-1

1 Royal Edition;Maldonado;Lukas;20-1

8 Purse $77,000, 1 1/16 miles, 4-year-olds and up, allowance optional claiming

**P C COWBOY followed a decisive entry-level allowance win at Remington with a solid fourth-place finish in the Zia Park Derby. He was given a confidence boost when the winner came back to win a stake at Fair Grounds. PINSON is a stake-placed runner who is capable of running big races, especially when able to control the pace. OPERATION STEVIE has finished third in consecutive restricted stakes at Indiana, and he did race competitively at this level last season at Oaklawn.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

2 P C Cowboy;Wethey;Young;3-1

7 Pinson;Thompson;Morse;6-1

1a Operation Stevie;Prescott;Contreras;7-2

5 United Stand;Cabrera;Hartman;5-1

6 King Ptolemy;Santana;Asmussen;8-1

9 Krewe Chief;Loveberry;Sims;4-1

1 Luvinmeiseasy;Sanjur;Contreras;7-2

8 Crafty Spector;Pompell;Haran;15-1

4 Cash Money Always;Hill;Ortiz;12-1

3 Plentiful;Felix;Duncan;20-1

9 Purse $75,000, 6 furlongs, fillies, 3-year-olds, maiden special weight

****TYFOSHA finished a strong second in her last race at Del Mar, and the winner of the race went on to win consecutive Grade I races. This filly has worked powerfully for her return and deserves strong favoritism. MO MO showed good early speed before tiring late in a useful third-place debut at Fair Grounds, and subsequent works suggests she has benefitted from the experience. LIL VIE raced well in a pair of third-place sprint finishes as a juvenile, and she is adding blinkers and switches to a Hall of Fame rider.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

8 Tyfosha;Canchari;O'Neill;2-1

5 Mo Mo;Cohen;Moquett;9-2

6 Lil Vie;Stevens;Cox;3-1

4 Diamondcoat;Morales;Gorder;12-1

1 Roll On Big Mama;Wethey;Young;15-1

2 Bartlett Narrows;Vazquez;Van Meter;12-1

3 Unprovoked;Birzer;Anderson;10-1

7 Country Affair;Thompson;Lukas;15-1

9 Unbridled's Girl;Court;Shorter;10-1

10 Eternal Bling;Quinonez;Durham;12-1

EXOTIC POSSIBILITIES

The first race is a competitive sprint and if playing the early double it is advised to go several deep. I do like Ever Special in the second. To save some coin, I'll single her, but the race is far from a sure thing. The 50-cent Pick-4 starting in the sixth race has a strong favorite in Unbridled Giant, but I like Mizz Wizz at a price so I'll use them both. The seventh race is a three- or four-horse race depending on one's opinion of Take That for Data. The eighth race drew a large field, and it appears at least a three-horse race. The final race is on paper the easiest race of the meeting to predict the winner, but it is horse racing so if you believe you can beat Tyfosha go right ahead.

Sports on 01/21/2018

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