It's becoming more likely that this fall's elections will go very well for the Democrats. I haven't looked for a while at how the House is shaping up, so here's what we know now: The margin of error in any prediction about the House is large, and it's certainly very possible that Republicans will retain a small majority there, but Democrats should be clearly favored to reach the 218 seats needed.
A huge factor has been the Democratic Party's intensity. It's produced a deep field of candidates, which means Democrats are well positioned to take advantage of either a late overall shift their way or Republican stumbles.
And those candidates will have resources. Second-quarter fundraising totals are still being reported, but so far Democrats have an astonishing 13 challengers and open-seat candidates who each raised $1 million in that quarter.
House elections depend on two factors. One set is locked in by the end of the primary elections; those factors are almost done, and they overwhelmingly favor Democrats. The other set has to do with how voters actually feel about the parties (and the president) in the final weeks of a campaign.
The numbers now say that Democrats will be helped there, too, although not by as much--but there's still plenty of time for President Donald Trump to become more or less popular, and raise or lower Republican candidates with him.
Editorial on 07/14/2018