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Lack of buzz for Belmont Stakes justified

For whatever reason, probably the Preakness Stakes, the excitement surrounding Justify and his shot at the Triple Crown on Saturday just isn't the same as it was with American Pharoah in 2015.

Justify barely held on to win the Preakness after dominating the Kentucky Derby. The favorite excuse for Justify winning by just half a length over fast-closing Bravazo -- and another head back and also closing was Tenfold -- was jockey Mike Smith knew he had the race won.

Hogwash. Justify was tiring at the end, and the two horses who competed at Oaklawn Park would have beaten his $500,000 purchase price if the race had been a mile and a quarter like the Derby, but the Preakness is 1 3/16 miles. That gave Bob Baffert his shot to saddle two Triple Crown winners, which probably won't happen.

Justify will run his sixth race in 101 days, and he didn't run at all as a 2-year-old.

Most 3-year-olds don't race that often, and Justify wouldn't have either if he hadn't won the first two legs of the Triple Crown.

Bettors are looking at the Belmont Stakes as a way to make some money because Justify is the 4-5 favorite. If he doesn't hit the board, the payoffs could be a perfect price point.

Obviously, there is a strong Oaklawn flavor, which has become the norm in the Triple Crown.

Bravazo won an allowance race at Oaklawn to start his 3-year-old campaign, but trainer D. Wayne Lukas loaded him up and took him to the Fairgrounds, where he won the Risen Star but ran into trouble in the Louisiana Derby. He got bumped pretty good early in the Kentucky Derby, ran wide, made a late bid but flattened out.

He did not flatten out in the Preakness. He was more than 12 lengths behind Justify at the head of the stretch but lost by that half length. Lukas said he has been moving forward in his training the past three weeks, but he also said Justify was training very well.

Tenfold, trained by Steve Asmussen, raced as a 2-year-old, broke his maiden at Oaklawn in February and followed that up five weeks later by winning an allowance race. He had to win the Arkansas Derby to have the points to qualify for Kentucky, but since he didn't he was fresh for the Preakness.

He laid off until they headed into the turn for home, where he got bumped and ran wide but was rallying at the end.

Tenfold has the best breeding to get the mile and a half Saturday. His bloodline includes Curlin, Tapit (who sired three of the past four Belmont winners), Pulpit, Deputy Minister and Mr. Prospector.

He'll be ridden by Ricardo Santana, and he'll break from the No. 7 hole.

The No. 1 hole could hurt Justify, meaning he'll be forced to use some early speed to keep from being pinned on the rail. Bravazo fared a little better, but not much, with the No. 3 spot.

Todd Pletcher may have something to say in the Belmont. He wasn't allowed to run Audible, who shares owners with Justify, but the crafty trainer has a speed horse entered in Noble Indy (also partly owned by WinStar Farms, who owns part of Justify and Audible) and a closer in Curlin-bred Vino Rosso, who for whatever reason ran wide the entire Kentucky Derby but had a mild rally at the end.

The best priced horse in the field is Free Drop Billy, who won the Breeders' Cup Futurity last year but hasn't found the winner's circle as a 3-year-old, although he has hit the board in three of four outings.

The play here is Tenfold to win, Vino Rosso to place and Free Drop Billy to show.

Sports on 06/07/2018

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