BEIJING -- President Xi Jinping is poised to make a historic power grab as China's legislators gather beginning today to approve changes that will let him rule indefinitely and undo decades of efforts to prevent a return to crushing dictatorship.
This year's two-week gathering of the ceremonial National People's Congress has been overshadowed by Xi's surprise move -- announced just a week ago -- to end constitutional two-term limits on the presidency. The changes would allow Xi, already China's most powerful leader in decades, to extend his rule over the world's second-largest economy, possibly for life.
"This is a critical moment in China's history," said Cheng Li, an expert on elite China politics at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
After being appointed leader of the ruling Communist Party in 2012, Xi, 64, has worked to concentrate power in his own hands. Xi has appointed himself to head bodies that oversee national security, finance, economics and other major initiatives, effectively sidelining the party's No. 2 figure, Premier Li Keqiang.
Once passed, the constitutional amendment would upend a system enacted by former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in 1982 to prevent a return to the bloody excesses of a lifelong dictatorship typified by Mao Zedong's chaotic 1966-1976 Cultural Revolution. Mao's unquestioned one-man rule led China into famine, chaos and ultimately political stagnation.
"Deng Xiaoping's abolishment of lifetime tenure for the leadership and more institutionalized transitions in power are very much in question," said Li, the politics expert.
Passage of the proposed constitutional amendment by the congress' nearly 3,000 delegates is all but certain. But observers will be looking to see how many delegates abstain from voting as an indication of the reservations the move has encountered even within the political establishment.
On Sunday, Zhang Yesui, the spokesman for the National People's Congress, told reporters that the move is only aimed at bringing the office of the president in line with Xi's other two main leadership positions -- he is also the party leader and the chief of the Central Military Commission, which controls the armed forces. Neither of those posts impose term limits.
"It is conducive to upholding the authority of the Central Committee of the party with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core, and also to unified leadership," Zhang said. "It will also be conducive to the state leadership system."
Zhang did not comment on the prospect of lifelong tenure for Xi.
PRAISE FROM TRUMP
U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to praise Xi's efforts to extend his tenure in a speech to donors, according to a recording released by CNN.
"Don't forget China's great and Xi is a great gentleman. He's now president for life," Trump told Republican backers, drawing laughs Saturday at his Mar-a-Lago estate.
"And look, he was able to do that," Trump said. "I think it's great. Maybe we'll give that a shot some day," he said, prompting more laughter. The White House didn't immediately respond to requests for comment.
Trump also on Saturday described Xi as "the most powerful president in 100 years, you know, person in 100 years in China," a period that would cover Mao and almost the entire span since the last emperor was forced to abdicate in 1912.
The U.S. president's tenure is limited to two full terms under the 22nd Amendment, which received the requisite support from two-thirds of Congress and three-fourths of the states in 1951. Changing the Chinese Constitution is much easier, requiring approval only from two-thirds of the National People's Congress.
Few experts expected China to adopt a Western-style democracy that is both freewheeling and partisan. But a return to one-man rule diminishes the likelihood that China's one-party system could move -- as some had hoped -- toward governing with greater accountability through the establishment of rules-based, impartial institutions.
This shows "the one-party system cannot be fully institutionalized. They operate as secret societies; nothing is public," said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, an expert on Chinese politics at Hong Kong Baptist University. "He's kind of a 'Godfather' and he will remain the Godfather until the next one comes along."
The official People's Daily sought to reassure the public by saying in a commentary that the move did not signal a return to lifelong rule.
"This amendment does not mean changes in the system of retirement for party and state leaders and also does not imply that leaders will have lifetime tenure," the party's newspaper said Thursday.
Still, a number of prominent Chinese figures have publicly protested the move, despite the risk of official retaliation.
Li Datong, a former editor for the state-run China Youth Daily, wrote that lifting term limits would "sow the seeds of chaos" and urged Beijing's lawmakers to reject the amendment.
Others have been unnerved by the seeming hastiness with which the proposed repeal of term limits was introduced.
"When it comes to the revision of the constitution, how could it be that there is not a significant public commenting process, that there is not a more deliberative review process?" said Dali Yang, a China expert at the University of Chicago. "That's truly a remarkable contrast."
Defense budget grows
China's finance ministry says that the country's defense budget this year will rise 8 percent to $173 billion.
"We will stick to the Chinese path in strengthening our armed forces, advance all aspects of military training and war preparedness," Premier Li Keqiang said as he read a report at the Great Hall of the People.
The armed forces will "firmly and resolutely safeguard national sovereignty, security and development interests," Li said.
China has the world's largest military by number of personnel, but Li said the country had "basically completed" the target of reducing the size of the armed forces by 300,000 troops. That would leave the military at around 2 million troops.
But China's defense spending as a share of gross domestic product and the budget remains lower than that of other major nations, Zhang, the spokesman for the legislature, said Sunday.
"China proceeds from a defense policy that is defensive in nature. China's development will not pose a threat to other countries," Zhang said.
Analysts don't consider China's publicly announced defense spending to be entirely accurate since defense equipment projects account for a significant amount of "off book" expenditures.
China's navy has been training rigorously on the Liaoning aircraft carrier, which was bought from Ukraine and heavily refurbished. In April, it launched a 50,000-ton carrier built entirely on its own based on the Ukrainian model.
It will join the improved Type 093B Shang class nuclear-powered attack submarine equipped with anti-ship missiles and the Type 055 guided-missile destroyers at the forefront of China's naval technology.
Such vessels stand to alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific where the U.S. Navy has long been dominant and regional rivals such as Japan and India are stepping up their presence. Most navy ships already have anti-ship cruise missiles with longer ranges than those of their U.S. counterparts.
China's navy is also relying on its numerical superiority. All three of China's sea forces -- the navy, coast guard and maritime militia -- are the largest of their types by number of ships, allowing them to "maintain presence and influence in vital seas," according to Andrew S. Erickson of the U.S. Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute.
All three fleets are growing "leaner and meaner" due to a greater emphasis on technical sophistication, Erickson wrote, adding that the U.S. also anticipates facing a Chinese submarine fleet twice its number, though less technologically advanced.
Information for this article was contributed by Gillian Wong, Christopher Bodeen and staff members of The Associated Press; and by Peter Martin, David Tweed, Dandan Li, Andrea Tan, Justin Sink, Margaret Talev and Jing Yang de Morel of Bloomberg News.
A Section on 03/05/2018