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WALLY HALL: Latest 'Arkie' a solid bet at Kentucky Derby

It was 2004 and the Cella family was in a box at Churchill Downs waiting to see if history would be made.

To Cellabrate the 100th year of Oaklawn Park's existence, Charles Cella, the late president, offered a $5 million bonus to any horse who could win Oaklawn's Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby, then the Kentucky Derby.

Smarty Jones easily swept the Rebel and Arkansas Derby, and as he made his move on the turn to home and put away the pretenders in the Kentucky Derby, Charles Cella began to cheer for Smarty -- so much so that daughter Harriet took hold of his arm, and sons Louis and John moved closer to him.

As Smarty Jones neared their box it appeared Charles would jump over the rail and help jockey Stewart Elliott pilot home the winner.

Smarty Jones may have been the most popular horse in Arkansas racing history. Not even American Pharoah could match the affection racing fans had for Smarty, who almost died after a training gate accident.

American Pharoah went on to win the Triple Crown in 2015, and he has his own statute outside the entrance to Oaklawn Park. Both horses tell the story of Arkansas Derby winners as sentimental favorites in the Kentucky Derby for Oaklawn officials and patrons.

This year's "Arkie" bred is Magnum Moon, who is following in the footprints of both Smarty Jones and American Pharoah by winning the Rebel and Arkansas Derby. He is the third favorite on the morning line at 6-1.

He won't stay there.

He'll more likely be 10 or 12 to one because he is taking on a huge chunk of history.

It has been 135 years -- and the Kentucky Derby is 144 years old Saturday -- since a horse won the Run for the Roses who was unraced as a 2-year-old.

Magnum Moon did not race as a 2-year-old, but neither did favorite Justify or long-shot Hofburg.

Justify and Magnum Moon have been very impressive as 3-year-olds, but the Apollo Curse -- Apollo was the last horse to win the Derby who didn't race when he was 2 -- seems to be something to respect.

Justify is 3 for 3, including an impressive victory in the Santa Anita Derby when he posted a speed figure of 114.

Magnum Moon is 4 for 4 and has shown tactical speed, running on the lead or off the pace, and he's won at three different tracks. All of Justify's wins were at Santa Anita.

Second favorite Mendelssohn won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November, and he's coming off an 18 length victory in the UAE Derby, but horses coming out of that derby and into the one in Kentucky are 0-13.

One to watch -- and he's one of four horses Todd Pletcher is saddling -- is Florida Derby winner Audible, who has won five races in a row and each time his speed rating increased. However, John Velazquez rode Audible in the Florida Derby but Pletcher has him staying with Vino Rosso, winner of the Wood Memorial.

Jockey changes are just part of the intrigue in horse racing.

One horse to eliminate is Solomini, who is fighting the most history of any horse in the race. He drew the No. 17 post, and no horse has ever won the Derby from that post.

A necessity in this race is to have luck. With a 20-horse field anything can happen, which gives My Boy Jack a shot since he will be way back and closing down the stretch. If he hits the wire first, claim him -- he won the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

There probably isn't a Triple Crown winner in this group, and if you throw out jinxes and superstitions, Magnum Moon will be a great value to win and even greater in the exotics. He's another great Arkansas horse.

Sports on 05/03/2018

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