You know that sound. That somewhat maniacal laughter you hear when all is quiet, and sometimes traveling above the din of everyday life. That’s me. Sorry.
In my defense, there are times it’s impossible to contain, especially when confronted by literally unbelievable conspiracy theories. Stevie Wonder’s not really blind? Stephen King, not Mark David Chapman, murdered John Lennon? The second Gulf War was waged to close Saddam Hussein’s stargate?
Really? This is what some people believe? Excuse me while I laugh-cry.
Obviously the minds behind those theories never heard of Occam’s Razor. Or maybe Occam’s Razor is itself a conspiracy …. ooooh.
This line of reasoning, attributed to 14th century English logician and Franciscan friar William of Ockham, posits that the simplest explanation is usually the correct one. The friar’s reasoning actually had two parts that, boiled down, resulted in what we call Occam’s Razor: Plurality shouldn’t be posited without necessity, and it’s pointless to do with more what is done with less. (And hey, if you want to blame someone for the founding fathers’ promotion of separation of church and state, blame the Franciscan. He was a troublemaker.)
Wonder (who turns 68 on Sunday) has been blind since shortly after his premature birth; the oxygen therapy used on him resulted in retinopathy of prematurity, leading to detached retinas, permanently blinding him. And despite the National Enquirer’s cover story in October, no, he hasn’t had surgery to restore his vision (wait … if he’s not blind, why would he need …). Sure, he’s joked about being able to see, but that’s all it was—a joke. The friar would likely agree that the simplest explanation here is that Wonder hasn’t been faking blindness for nearly 68 years … and that he has a puckish sense of humor (I knew there was another reason to like him).
The most compelling “proof” offered by Steve Lightfoot, who maintains that horror author Stephen King killed John Lennon is that in 1980, King somewhat resembled Chapman. Of course, by that time King was very well-known, with multiple books having been on the best-seller lists and Carrie and The Shining so recently in theaters, so much so that such a crime would have been nearly impossible for him to accomplish without being recognized. But sure, he could … who am I kidding?
And a stargate? Really?? The friar is laughing at that one from his grave, I’m sure. Fairly sure Saddam is too. Richard Dean Anderson is at least slightly amused.
Occam’s Razor is often misused, but it seems to be especially effective when it comes to conspiracy theories, as they tend to head quickly toward the fantastic. If you see hoof prints at the entrance to the barn, think horses rather than polka-dotted unicorns. And if someone keeps talking about horrific rituals going on in a pizzeria’s nonexistent basement, assume at the very least that they’re not going on there rather than there being a hidden basement.
The more complex a conspiracy theory is, and the more participants involved, the less likely it is that it’s true. It’s not just me saying that, either. In January 2016, Dr. David Grimes of Oxford published a study, “On the Viability of Conspiratorial Beliefs,” in which he devised a mathematical formula to determine how long it would take a true conspiracy to be revealed, either intentionally or accidentally.
By analyzing the time that had passed, number of people involved, and the probability of failure in three actual conspiracies—the NSA’s PRISM program, the Tuskegee syphilis experiment and the FBI forensics scandal of 20 years ago—Grimes was able to compare several theories, such as the moon-landing hoax, and the climate-change fraud conspiracy. His analysis suggests that the moon-landing hoax would have been revealed in 3.7 years, and climate-change fraud in 3.7 to 26.8 years, so we should have already seen proof of the theories being real by now. Considering that, the likelihood is far greater that the theories aren’t true.
Now if the theorists will just recognize that.
William of Ockham would probably be grateful that he isn’t alive now to see the damage wreaked by conspiracy theories. The movement to argue that victims of mass shootings weren’t victims at all, but “crisis actors,” is one of the more insidious.
Those who lost family at Sandy Hook, Las Vegas, and Stoneman Douglas, among others, have been threatened and castigated, all the while they are in mourning. Much of the time it’s done anonymously, but sometimes it’s up close and personal, as it was with Pastor Frank Pomeroy of Sutherland Springs, who lost his daughter in the church attack there. Robert Ussery and Jodi Mann of the conspiracy site Side Thorn were arrested in March after harassing the pastor and churchgoers, with Ussery even demanding Pomeroy’s daughter’s birth certificate to prove she even existed. Pomeroy demurred, saying that when Ussery wouldn’t accept things already visible, he probably wouldn’t believe anything else shown to him.
This is what we’re dealing with. Is it any wonder I get cranky sometimes?
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AssistantEditorBrendaLooperiseditorof the Voices page. Read her blog at blooper0223. wordpress.com . Email her at blooper@ arkansasonline.com .