There is absolutely no reason to believe anyone other than Justify will win the Preakness, and that he will go into the Belmont as the overwhelming favorite to become the second horse this decade to win the Triple Crown.
His chances in the Belmont are much more challenging than this Saturday's field at Pimlico, which is probably going to be slippery because there is an 80 percent chance of rain.
Justify, in the slop, was the best at the Kentucky Derby -- so much so that only three from that race dared follow the winner to Baltimore.
Good Magic, who held off Audible for second in Louisville, Bravazo and Lone Sailor are going to try to beat Justify one more time. Justify is the 1-2 morning-line favorite, and Good Magic is second at 3-1.
Everyone else is 12-1 or higher, so if you are looking for value and think Justify will have more trouble with the gooey, slippery sod of Pimlico than he did the mud at Churchill, this race is for you.
Remember, Justify didn't back down from the blistering pace and still ran the last quarter of a mile in :27 flat after facing 22.1, 45.3, 1:11 and 1:37.1.
He won by 2½ lengths, and while one of his weaknesses was supposed to be that he had beaten a total of 14 horses in his three previous wins, all at Santa Anita, he beat 19 on that first Saturday of this month at Churchill Downs.
Justify won't face anything close to that size field Saturday, partly because most trainers don't think they can beat him.
But there are a couple who no doubt are drawing a target on Bob Baffert's back for the Belmont -- most likely Todd Pletcher and Audible as well as a few others.
They are skipping the Preakness to give their horses five weeks of training leading into the 1½ miles of sandy loam at Belmont.
No sense in even complaining about it because that's become part of the racing strategy for several trainers.
Horses are not bred for endurance anymore. They are bred to squeeze all the speed they can into a foal, yet, the biggest races are still more than a mile long, so trainers like longer breaks between races.
Justify was just as impressive in his Derby win as American Pharoah was when he and Baffert broke the 37-year drought of no Triple Crown winners.
Still, Audible closed 2½ lengths on Justify in the last quarter of a mile. While he didn't have a ton of trouble, Audible didn't have the worry-free trip Justify did when he broke second and stayed out of the flying mud. Justify and jockey Mike Smith looked like they had gone for a light run on the beach instead of racing in the mud.
One thing to keep in mind is that Pimlico mud is different than Churchill mud. The dirt has a different mixture and tends to be more slippery.
So with a break or two, maybe more, Good Magic might catch Justify. There are a couple of other horses that should, if nothing else, be played in exotics.
Lone Sailor was sideswiped out of the gate in the Kentucky Derby and was 12th after a mile before finishing eighth. He's a real long shot.
Diamond King has won four of six races and is trained by John Servis, who led Smarty Jones to the winner's circle of the Arkansas and Kentucky derbies and the Preakness. He should hit the board.
Quip won the Tampa Bay Derby and finished second in the Arkansas Derby. He skipped the Run for the Roses, so he's coming off five weeks of rest.
There are a few others, but most likely everyone is running for second place. Justify is the pick here, followed by Good Magic and Diamond King.
Sports on 05/17/2018