Commentary

Garrett losing benefit of doubt in Dallas

Dallas Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett speaks during a news conferenece following a preseason NFL football game against the Arizona Cardinals in Arlington, Texas, Sunday, Aug. 26, 2018.
Dallas Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett speaks during a news conferenece following a preseason NFL football game against the Arizona Cardinals in Arlington, Texas, Sunday, Aug. 26, 2018.

A funny thing happened when Jason Garrett put his career on the line Sunday night with a decision to punt that Cowboys fans hated, media critics hated and owner Jerry Jones hated.

I didn't hate it.

I didn't love it, but I didn't expect it to cost Dallas the game. I thought it would cost the Cowboys a chance to win but greatly improve their chances of escaping Houston with a tie.

I know I have expressed my odd affection for ties as if I'm some lost soccer fan (which I'm not), but it bugs me that veteran football coaches who know plenty about designing plays and schemes and game plans know so little about what kind of decisions cost them football games.

Garrett's decision to punt on fourth and 1 at the Houston 42 with 5:40 left in overtime was a cautious choice to be sure. That doesn't mean it was wildly wrong. It means at that moment Garrett believed more in his team's defense than his offense, and why wouldn't he?

Ezekiel Elliott had just been blasted for no gain on third and 1. The idea that a simple handoff to Zeke works because it has worked before is not a reflection of the way this Cowboys' offense is failing to make plays this season.

The idea of punting the ball to the Houston 10 (which happened) meant the Texans would need to drive roughly 60 yards for a long, winning field goal. Since halftime, Houston's possessions had produced 5, 14, 26, 9, 59, 5 and 41 yards.

So there was a great chance DeAndre Hopkins does not make the game-breaking catch-and-run that he delivered. Of course, there was at least a chance because Hopkins is elite, and Jones should be more mindful of the fact he went to work this summer with nothing approaching elite at the position.

So while most people booed this decision at the moment it happened, I thought it was risky but worth a consideration.

There are three kinds of decisions coaches make that lead to them getting fired. There are Category One decisions, which shouldn't but do if they happen often enough. A Category One is a decision basically everyone believes to be logical when the ball is snapped. Then when things go wrong, the second-guessers pile on.

This was a Category Two decision. It's one where a lot of people question it but it has merit at the time. Analytics people will tell you this one didn't, and Garrett has a rather scary dismissal of the whole analytics field for a Princeton guy, but if a game is 16-16 in the fifth quarter, defense just might be the way to win.

Then there are Category Three decisions. Unfortunately for Garrett, he has made a number of these during his career. They are the ones that don't work and never made sense to try. His "icing the kicker" call back in 2011 is the classic, calling timeout as Dan Bailey was kicking the winning field goal. Then he missed the second try. What people forget is far worse. The Cowboys had the ball at the Arizona 31 with 30 seconds to go and two timeouts. Garrett had Tony Romo run the clock down and spike it, settling for a 49-yard try.

Afterward, Garrett talked about the danger of negative plays. It was the least confident statement he has ever made, and he made it while losing an overtime game to the mighty Arizona Cardinals.

He hasn't pulled that stunt lately, but he's had clock-management failures too numerous to count. In the must-win game against Seattle on Dec. 24, he failed to get Zeke the ball again down near the goal line and came away with a defeat. If you choose to put that on Scott Linehan, keep in mind he is Garrett's guy.

I don't put this Garrett bobble in his top five, but if Jones eventually does, then nothing else matters. And the head coach has made enough Category Three mistakes in a modest eight-year career to elevate this one to career-changing before we reach 2019.

Sports on 10/10/2018

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