No Justify just fine for plenty of bettors

Triple Crown winner Justify is not going to be a part of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but his absence could create a lot of different options when it comes to wagering.
Triple Crown winner Justify is not going to be a part of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but his absence could create a lot of different options when it comes to wagering.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- The reigning Triple Crown champion is not part of the field for this weekend's Breeders' Cup Classic. And none of the horses in any of the 14 races that make up the Breeders' Cup cards this weekend has ever won a Kentucky Derby, a Preakness or a Belmont Stakes.

So there's little argument the races at Churchill Downs this weekend have lost a little luster.

The same argument could be made that this Breeders' Cup might end up as a bettors' delight.

Justify, the Triple Crown champion who was forced into retirement by an ankle problem, would have given the $6 million Classic a superstar for bettors to back. But his absence creates more of a wide-open race, one that has the Dubai World Cup winner in Thunder Snow, the past two Travers Stakes winners in West Coast and Catholic Boy, and 5-2 early favorite Accelerate, who has won his last four Grade 1 starts.

"Bettors love a large, wide-open field that offers value in their selections," said trainer Tom Amoss, whose horse Lone Sailor is a 30-1 morning-line long-shot in the Classic. "I don't have any question that that'll be the case."

There are plenty of reasons to like most of the horses in the Classic. Combined, the 14 entrants have combined to hit the toteboard in 72 percent of their lifetime starts.

Casual fans might not know all the names, but the sport's biggest followers are likely seeing some serious Classic value.

"Justify not being part of the Classic, a Triple Crown winner, tends to take a little bit away from the Classic itself as far as the viewer wanting to see the best of the best," Amoss said. "But don't sell this group short. These are really, really good, talented horses, and whoever emerges the victor is going to probably garner older-horse divisional championships."

Whoever wins the Grade 1 Classic figures to take a big step toward contending for the Eclipse Award given to the year's best horse. If Justify were here and won the Classic -- like American Pharoah did three years ago in his Triple Crown year -- it would have been huge news.

"I would've loved to have him in there, it would've been great," said trainer Bob Baffert, who conditioned both American Pharoah and Justify. "But I think it's a good field, a solid field."

That really can be said about all of the Breeders' Cup races. The entrants for this weekend have combined to win 794 races, or just over 37 percent of their career starts. It is inevitable that some horses who have never finished lower than third won't even hit the board this weekend.

The Breeders' Cup Distaff for fillies and mares features the two most recent Kentucky Oaks winners in Monomoy Girl and Abel Tasman, another Baffert horse.

No Classic is complete without a Baffert presence, and he has two in West Coast and McKinzie -- the horse who might have been the Derby favorite if not for a hind leg injury. Justify seized the opening, and the rest is horse racing history.

Sports on 10/31/2018

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