OPINION

Not much competition, yet

When last seen, Bill Weld was running as the Libertarian candidate for vice president in 2016 alongside former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson. Before that he was the very moderate and mild Republican governor of Massachusetts from 1991 to 1997.

In the wake of his announcement that he will challenge President Trump for the GOP nomination in 2020, Weld may have more supporters in the media than among the GOP faithful. He has always been outside of the emotional center of the Republican Party and has no case to make that he is the answer to those who wish to dethrone President Donald Trump as the GOP's leader. Weld is nearing gadfly status if he is not already there.

But Weld's entry into the race does invite the question of whether Trump could be credibly challenged in the Republican primaries in 2020.

I believe the Republican Party will outlive Trump, but there is no question that Trump and the America First agenda of strong borders, fair trade as opposed to free trade and an honest foreign policy that requires more of our allies and directly challenges our competitors now forms the core of the Republican Party. Weld is driven by some sort of personal compulsion rather than answering any legitimate call from within the party. The same goes for members of the old guard such as Jeff Flake and John Kasich, who are often mentioned by members of the commentariat class as potential challengers to Trump.

So what is the scenario that could propel a credible GOP challenger to Trump in the primaries? Perhaps, in late spring, if Trump is running behind in the polls against every single Democratic candidate and if he is implicated in some sort of criminal conduct or if an economic or international trauma plagues his presidency, then there could be a more welcoming environment for a challenger.

But it will not be from the likes of Weld, Kasich or Flake. Fair or not, they represent the genteel incrementalist past. Conservatives who represent a majority of the party nationwide believe that establishment Republicans are responsible for slowly giving America away. Generally speaking, the energy of the Republican Party is supplied by the president and his America First agenda. It is unlikely that any of that will change between now and the convention in 2020.

Republicans have plenty of legitimate complaints about Trump, even if the party leadership chooses to refrain from engaging in pointless dissent. But Weld does not come close to satisfying the Republicans who find Trump repulsive at the human level or are just embarrassed by him. There is nothing to suggest that GOP voters are close to abandoning Trump. Even if events do take us down the path where Trump could be vulnerable, the rival will not be a traditional establishment figure. Someone else would have to take advantage.

Editorial on 02/22/2019

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