If President Donald Trump agrees to end the partial government shutdown without a deal to fund a southern border wall, it's an exaggeration to say his supporters would abandon him. But they would be disappointed and in some cases angry--and the enthusiasm of his base is much more important than their actual numbers.
When it appeared a few weeks ago that Trump was ready to capitulate and agree to a short-term budget resolution without wall funding, his supporters were shaking their heads. They want the president to play hardball, and word obviously reached the White House that such a deal would be seen as surrendering to Nancy Pelosi before she even took up the gavel.
Trump is claiming lately that his new trade deal means Mexico is paying for the wall "indirectly," but that thin defense is aimed only at his critics who pretend to care. His core supporters never did.
It's been accurately pointed out that Trump's critics take him literally but not seriously, while his supporters take him seriously but not literally. Trump's campaign consisted of giant pep rallies, televised so often that future attendees knew what to expect and how to participate. From chants of "lock her up" to repeating the various nicknames with which Trump labeled his opponents, everyone had the script and knew when it was their turn to read their lines, like the litanies of a church.
"Who's going to pay for the wall?" Trump would ask.
"Mexico!" the crowd would roar in response, most people laughing even as they played the game.
But Trump's base takes the wall itself seriously, and, like George H.W. Bush's 1988 campaign pledge on taxes, the wall has become the president's "read my lips" albatross. His supporters may not abandon him over it, but Trump's re-election hinges entirely on their enthusiasm.
But whether it's built or not, the wall--or barrier or fence--has become entirely symbolic, something the Democrats know as well, especially those who just a few years ago supported the need for such barriers.
So successfully have critics blurred the distinction between legal and illegal migrants that the president is often accused of being "anti-immigration," and the wall has come to symbolize the United States' core philosophy about immigration itself.
If Pelosi, Schumer & Co. prevail, it will make Trump a loser on his top priority. Weak-kneed Republicans in Congress will start to peel away. Trump's base didn't take him seriously on Mexico paying for the wall, but they took him literally on the wall being built. On this, he has no choice but to stand his ground.
Editorial on 01/12/2019