Theresa May set a date for a fourth vote on her European Union-exit deal, promising to take it back to Parliament at the start of June. Talks with the opposition Labor Party haven't yielded an agreement, but she's hoping members of Parliament, stung by voter revolts, will back her in order to end the process that's tearing both main parties apart.
"It's time for Parliament to make a decision," Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay told the BBC. "The country needs to move forward. Business needs to have certainty."
May opened talks with the Labor Party seven weeks ago, arguing that nothing else had worked. But the talks didn't deliver a breakthrough, and it was never clear that they could deliver a majority.
The next stage of May's plan, as it was announced in April, was moving to a series of indicative votes if the talks failed. That appears to have been shelved.
Instead, in the week of June 3, while President Donald Trump is in the U.K. on a state visit, she'll put before Parliament the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, which would write her deal into law. The government said this is "imperative" if the bill is to pass before Parliament goes on vacation in July.
The bill has been repeatedly postponed since last year, as May has tried to find a majority in Parliament for her deal. She has failed three times to get the House of Commons to support it. Some Conservatives, and her allies in Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party, oppose it because of the "Irish backstop" section that deals with Northern Ireland's border.
If the bill is defeated, May can't revive it again without ending this parliamentary session and starting a new one, which would require a review of the confidence-and-supply agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party that props up her minority government. It would also raise the prospect of defeat on votes on the government's legislative program.
In reality, it would almost certainly mean a new prime minister. Even May, who has survived several bruising defeats, would struggle to argue that she should stay on as Conservative Party leader if her deal is voted down.
May set out her plan to Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn in an hourlong meeting in Parliament on Tuesday evening. He told her that the Labor Party wouldn't back the bill without a formal agreement, according to a person familiar with their discussions.
According to a Labor Party statement, Corbyn "raised doubts over the credibility of government commitments, following statements by Conservative [members of Parliament] and Cabinet ministers seeking to replace the prime minister." The government promised to revive more proposals Wednesday, Labor said.
The bill is not likely to pass without Labor Party support. The last time May asked Parliament to approve her deal, on March 29, Parliament rejected it 344-286. On that occasion, even though key Brexit supporters including Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg gave in and voted with her, 34 other Conservatives still held out and voted against it. It was this intransigence that led her to begin talks with the Labor Party.
On Wednesday, Owen Paterson, a Conservative opposing May's deal, said he would not back the bill when it is introduced, demonstrating that she will once again struggle to secure the numbers to pass the legislation and may have to rely on Labor Party votes. Meanwhile the leader of the 11-strong Liberal Democrats, Vince Cable, told BBC radio that his support is contingent on a second referendum.
Members of the Democratic Unionist Party made clear that they weren't shifting position. "What has changed?" asked its Westminster leader, Nigel Dodds. "Unless she can demonstrate something new that addresses the problem of the backstop, then it is highly likely her deal will go down to defeat once again."
Labor Party members of Parliament might also see reason to move. Brexit is tearing them apart, too, and they failed to benefit from the Conservatives' woes during the recent local elections, instead losing seats.
There were faint signs of hope for May on Tuesday evening. The Labor Party's Lucy Powell sent a tweet that suggested she wanted the Labor Party to back a deal. "The most likely outcome without the cross-party consensus is 'no deal,"' she wrote. "That's the default legal position for October and is a dead cert with a new [Conservative prime minister]."
Information for this article was contributed by Kitty Donaldson of Bloomberg News.
A Section on 05/16/2019