I like Census data and the redrawing of the state's congressional districts every 10 years to reflect population shifts and thus necessarily disturb the political status quo.
Some of my finest enjoyment on the Arkansas political beat was coming up with nicknames--the Pig Trail Gerrymander and then the Fayetteville Finger, unless the latter was someone else's original coinage--for the state Democrats' scheme nine years ago.
The Democrats wanted to run the Republicanizing and population-losing 4th District of southern Arkansas straight northward along a narrow path into Fayetteville to snatch the college town's Democratic votes.
The scheme got rejected on account of being brazen. It indeed resembled, when mapped, a finger--that finger.
So, here it is 2019 and we're coming close to the 2020 Census and the job in 2021 of taking that data and redrawing the state's congressional districts to even the population among the four.
Jamie Gates of the Conway Chamber of Commerce is a number-cruncher whose skill gets tapped from time to time for data-oriented pieces by Talk Business and Politics. Gates also did some number-crunching for the 35 state Senate districts, which are redrawn, at least for now, like House districts, by the state Board of Apportionment, consisting of the governor, the attorney general and the secretary of state. The Legislature does the congressional redistricting, also at least for the moment.
But state Senate and House contemplations don't interest as much, being smaller and more intricate.
I should say at this point that ballot-issue maestro David Couch, a Little Rock lawyer, is saying he intends to get on the ballot in 2020 a proposal to remove redistricting from politicians and give it to an independent commission.
It makes sense and adds fairness. But state Republicans can be forgiven wondering why we're deciding to be sensible and fair all of a sudden now that they're in charge.
Anyway, Gates' numbers--which are informed projections--show, as surely you would expect, that the 3rd District of Northwest Arkansas has gained substantial population since 2010 and must cede territory in the next decade; that the 2nd District of Central Arkansas has gained population but not nearly as much as the 3rd and must cede a smattering, and that the rural districts of the 1st in eastern and north-central Arkansas and the 4th in south and west Arkansas have lost substantially and must gain territory.
Gates' loosely rounded projections are that the 3rd in Northwest Arkansas will need to lose about 80,500 residents; that the 2nd in Central Arkansas will need to lose about 16,500; that the 4th of southern and western Arkansas will need to pick up about 60,000 and the 1st of eastern and north-central Arkansas, losing less population than the 4th only because of the Jonesboro-Paragould area, will need to pick up somewhere around 40,000.
By "loosely rounded," I mean you shouldn't ask me for an exact explanation as to why Gates has two districts needing to gain 100,000 and two needing to lose 97,000.
Bear in mind that population variances of 1 percent between congressional districts are common and acceptable. So absolute precision isn't necessary, or possible at this point.
Gates says there seems an easy, logical, nondisruptive way to do the reapportionment. Pope County could be switched from the 3rd District to the 4th District; Marion County from the 3rd to the 1st, and Van Buren County from the 2nd to the 1st.
Basically:
• The 3rd District would constrict to Fort Smith up through Fayetteville, Springdale, Rogers and Bentonville, with a loop out over the sparsely populated mountains to Harrison.
• The 2nd would lose Clinton and the rest of Van Buren County, costing Republican U.S. Rep. French Hill about a 4,500-margin that he could uneasily spare considering that he beat Democratic challenger Clarke Tucker last year by 16,000 votes. Hill would win 53-47 rather than 55-45.
• The 1st District would stretch vastly, as Gates puts it, from Lake Chicot on the southeast to Bull Shoals Lake on the northwest.
• The 4th District would creep northward to add Pope County, a vibrant county perhaps to become more vibrant with a new casino.
There might be a few county carve-outs needed, but the above would be a solid starting and near-finishing point.
I'd introduce one more possibility that considers the vindictiveness of some Republican legislators, assuming they're still doing redistricting at the time.
It's that the 4th District of southern Arkansas could pick up, instead of Pope County, 60,000 residents by carving out the southern portion of Pulaski County on the argument that the southern part of Pulaski has much in common with, say, Sheridan and Pine Bluff.
Gates doubts it would pass a legal test, since dividing Pulaski that way would weaken black voting strength.
But it would be a finger in its own right.
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John Brummett, whose column appears regularly in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, is a member of the Arkansas Writers' Hall of Fame. Email him at jbrummett@arkansasonline.com. Read his @johnbrummett Twitter feed.
Editorial on 10/13/2019