U.S. adviser talks
of 20% jobless rate
Bloomberg News
White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said Sunday that the U.S. unemployment rate could peak at more than 20% in May and could still be in the double digits around the time of the presidential election in November.
While jobless data is a lagging indicator, business activity is already close to an "inflection point" toward recovery, Hassett said on CNN's State of the Union.
The job market, as shown by unemployment figures, is "probably about a month away" from that point, he said.
The insured unemployment rate, or the number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance as a share of the total eligible labor market, rose to 17.2% in the week that ended May 9, according to the latest Labor Department report.
"We're going to see more bad data," Hassett said. If glitches that marred last week's data are fixed, he said, then the U.S. could "end up with a number north of 20% in May."
People's fear of contracting the virus and the absence of a vaccine are likely to weigh on the economy into the fall, Hassett said. But he expressed confidence that it'll "skyrocket" back in the third quarter after record-setting losses in the second quarter, citing a Congressional Budget Office forecast.
Asked whether he sees the unemployment rate in the double digits in November, Hassett said: "Yes, I do."
"But I think that all the signs of economic recovery are going to be raging everywhere, and the only thing we're going to be debating as economists" is how quickly output will return to where it was before the pandemic, Hassett said.
"Unemployment will be something that moves back slower," Hassett said. "It could be better than that, but you're going to be starting at a number in the 20s and working your way down. So of course you could not be back to full employment by September or October. If there were a vaccine in July, I'd be way more optimistic."
Program focuses
on birds' survival
The Washington Post
Scientists have long feared that the Florida grasshopper sparrow would be the next bird to go extinct in North America. But now, scores of birds, bred in captivity and released into the grasslands of Central Florida, have started producing chicks that researchers hope will be the key to the species' survival.
The population of the grasshopper sparrow had dwindled to just 30 breeding pairs when a coalition of nonprofit and government agencies forged a plan to rebuild the population with captive breeding.
Scientists experimented with different breeding techniques before hitting on a formula that placed the birds in roomy cages, raised by their parents and surrounded by fields. About 150 young sparrows were released in batches over the past year in hopes that they'd be ready to mate this spring.
For weeks, researchers have been patrolling a grassy prairie south of Orlando, monitoring the birds to see whether they could survive in the wild. The sparrows went right to work finding mates and building nests, and they are now raising the first chicks of the season.
"We're very excited," said Juan Oteyza, the state biologist who oversees the project, which costs about $1.2 million a year. "It's not only working, but it's working well."
Researchers follow every sparrow in the wild with the help of colored leg bands. Some of the captive birds paired together while others mated with wild birds. So far, more than a dozen chicks and fledglings have been spotted, and eggs are in many of the nests, said Oteyza, a research scientist with the Florida Fish and Wildlife Research Institute.
The program's researchers watch over the birds like worried parents. As soon as they find a new nest, they put up a fence to keep out predators and raise the level to prevent flooding. They'll track the birds' progress through the year and continue to add new captive-bred birds to boost the population.
"There's still a lot of work to be done," Oteyza said.
A Section on 05/25/2020