Can Tenet kick-start chain movie theaters in July?

John David Washington (right) stars in Christopher Nolan’s Tenet. The plot of the film, which also stars Robert Pattinson, has been kept mostly secret.
John David Washington (right) stars in Christopher Nolan’s Tenet. The plot of the film, which also stars Robert Pattinson, has been kept mostly secret.

Hollywood couldn't have scripted a better potential comeback story for the movie theater industry.

Warner Bros. is poised to release the latest feature from acclaimed director Christopher Nolan, one of the biggest advocates for the big-screen experience, on July 17. If his science fiction thriller, Tenet, premieres as planned, it will be the first big-budget film to debut in wide theatrical release since U.S. multiplexes were shuttered in mid-March.

A successful launch for the movie would herald a triumphant return for beleaguered cinemas after months of closures that have threatened to bankrupt exhibitors. For Nolan, to be the filmmaker who kick-starts the business hobbled by the coronavirus would be almost too fitting.

However, that may not be possible.

Because of public health policies meant to slow the spread of the coronavirus, theater owners remain uncertain when they will be able to fully open across the nation at a level that can support a major studio movie.

That's especially true in key markets such as Los Angeles, San Francisco and New York, which are essential for a film of Tenet's size to become profitable. Those cities are home to the cinephiles who would normally flock to a new film from the director of Dunkirk, Interstellar, Inception and The Dark Knight. It's also unclear when moviegoers will be willing to go back to theaters amid lingering fears of new outbreaks.

The situation is tricky for Burbank-based Warner Bros., which has much riding on Tenet. The film is estimated to have cost about $190 million to produce, not including marketing. The AT&T Inc.-owned studio has already launched its marketing campaign, with TV commercials that aired May 20 and a trailer that launched May 21 on the popular online video game Fortnite. The new trailer did not specify a release date.

"Even though it's not a Marvel or Star Wars movie, it's still contingent on having a worldwide footprint," said Shawn Robbins, an analyst at BoxOffice.com. "The sheer risk is in the daily news changing. That puts the studio in a really difficult situation."

Representatives of Warner Bros. and Nolan declined to comment for this story.

The release of Tenet illustrates a central conundrum the entertainment industry faces as executives, theater owners and workers hope to get back in business.

Studios don't want their expensive movies to go into theatrical release if cinemas aren't widely open and customers remain fearful. Theaters are expected to start opening in late June and early July with strict social distancing rules, limited seating and heavy cleaning regimens. Some theaters have already opened in Georgia and Texas. Cinema chains probably will open with capacity of 25% to 50%.

On the other hand, most major circuits have said they don't want to resume until there are major new movies for them to show, creating a game of chicken for the film business. Comscore said there were roughly 320 theaters open in the United States last week, including some 150 drive-ins, which have been showing older films including Bloodshot and indie films such as IFC's horror flick The Wretched.

"It's all about consumer confidence," said box office analyst Jeff Bock of Exhibitor Relations. "We won't know until we open theaters, but there are definitely people who do not want to go to a movie theater right now."

One exhibition industry executive expressed increasing confidence that enough theaters will reopen by early July to release Tenet, given the accelerating pace at which states, including California, are opening their economies. Even if theaters in Los Angeles and New York aren't open on July 17, they probably will be soon after, said the executive, who requested anonymity because he was not authorized to comment on the plans.

Warner Bros., led by pictures group chairman Toby Emmerich, has not revealed any contingency plans. However, analysts and industry insiders speculate that Tenet could move to the Aug. 14 release date currently held by Patty Jenkins' Wonder Woman 1984 if circumstances make a July debut untenable. In that case, the Wonder Woman sequel, also made by Warner Bros., would move to another date.

If Tenet were postponed, it would leave Walt Disney Co.'s live-action Mulan remake as the first potential blockbuster to brave theaters in the wake of the virus when it comes out July 24. Disney already moved the release from its planned March 27 date, and the company has given no indication that it plans to move the film again.

Many exhibitors are worried that the extended shutdowns will do long-term harm to their business model. Several studios have decided to forgo theatrical releases for certain movies during the pandemic and put them directly onto streaming services and video-on-demand sites. Exhibitors have long decried efforts by studios to tamper with the theatrical window, or the average 90-day gap between a movie's release in cinemas and on home video.

Universal Pictures released Trolls World Tour to strong online sales of $95 million in three weeks, leading NBCUniversal CEO Jeff Shell to declare that the studio would pursue similar releases even after coronavirus. AMC Theatres said it would no longer play Universal's movies, in response to Shell's comments.

Warner Bros. on May 15 launched its new animated movie, Scoob, a Scooby-Doo origin story, for digital rental and purchase.

But no matter when Tenet is released, one thing's certain: It will be in theaters.

"He is Mr. Cinema," Robbins said of Nolan. "I don't think there's a bigger advocate for seeing movies in a theater."

MovieStyle on 05/29/2020

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