Jobless claims fall, but persist

A holiday shop in Bryant Park in New York on Nov. 10, 2020.
(Bloomberg photo/Gabriela Bhaskar)
A holiday shop in Bryant Park in New York on Nov. 10, 2020. (Bloomberg photo/Gabriela Bhaskar)

Applications for U.S. state unemployment benefits fell by the most in five weeks, signaling the gradual recovery in the labor market is continuing despite a record surge in covid-19 infections.

Initial jobless claims in regular state programs totaled 709,000 in the week ended Saturday, down 48,000 from the week before, Labor Department data reported Thursday. On an unadjusted basis, the figure decreased by about 21,000.

The still-elevated figure shows that eight months after the pandemic flattened the economy, many employers are still slashing jobs.

Continuing claims -- the total number of Americans claiming state unemployment assistance -- fell by 436,000 to 6.79 million in the week ended Oct. 31. But the number of people claiming support in programs offering extended assistance continued to increase as more Americans exhausted their regular state benefits.

The main figures were below economists' projections for 731,000 initial claims and 6.83 million continuing claims, according to the median estimates in Bloomberg surveys.

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While initial claims remain more than triple pre-pandemic levels, the data suggest the labor-market rebound is holding up after a stronger-than-forecast jobs report for October. Gains could prove more challenging in coming months, amid signs that colder weather and the coronavirus's uncontrolled spread are further discouraging activities like indoor dining and travel, while the lack of fresh government stimulus challenges many households and businesses.

In recent days, the virus's resurgence has triggered tighter restrictions on businesses, mostly restaurants and bars, in a range of states, including Texas, New York, Maryland and Oregon.

The number of Americans receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation, the 13-week program for those who have exhausted state benefits, increased about 160,000 to 4.14 million in the week ended Oct. 24.

Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, which provides benefits to self-employed and gig workers, increased about 101,000 to 9.43 million. In total, 21.2 million Americans were claiming some kind of unemployment benefit -- which includes state programs, extended benefits, work-sharing and Pandemic Unemployment Assistance -- during the week ended Oct. 24, down slightly from the previous week.

A separate report Thursday showed that the consumer price index was unchanged in October, below forecasts that called for a modest gain, reflecting cheaper gasoline, declining medical-care costs and lower clothing prices.

For initial jobless claims, the biggest declines last week were in Georgia, Kentucky and Texas. States reporting increases included California, Washington and Massachusetts.

VIRUS SURGE

The figures coincide with a sharp resurgence in confirmed viral infections. Cases are rising in 49 states, and deaths are increasing in 39.

The viral outbreak threatens to upend the improvement in the job market in recent months. The unemployment rate plunged a full percentage point in October to 6.9% while employers added a solid 600,000 new jobs.

Weekly applications for jobless aid remain at historically high levels. The applications probably include some people who lost jobs weeks ago but had to wait for states to process their claims. Some of them might not have filed for benefits until last week even though they were laid off earlier.

Workers can also seek aid if they're still working but have had their hours cut. Still others might have lost jobs more than once; when they file for benefits again, it can count as a new claim.

The economy still has roughly 10 million fewer jobs than it had before the pandemic -- a total that exceeds all the jobs that vanished in the 2008-09 recession. Government stimulus, in the form of federal unemployment benefits, aid for small businesses and checks to most individuals has largely run out. Without further assistance, economists worry that more restaurants and other small businesses will close and the plight of the unemployed will worsen.

And unless Congress extends their benefits, millions of jobless people will run out of aid entirely by year's end.

LOST TWO JOBS

Among them is Victoria Perez, who was working two delivery jobs before the pandemic struck. Having lost both jobs in the spring, she is now living with her children in city-subsidized housing near Oakland, Calif., and hoping to avoid homelessness.

The city housing, provided to people at heightened risk of the coronavirus, lasts only through December. Perez, 38, is a cancer survivor.

"The pandemic just ruined everything," she said. "I was doing really good, and then nothing."

Before the pandemic, Perez had been delivering lunch from restaurants to office workers. She also had a job with a company called Replate, taking leftover food from tech firms in San Francisco to homeless shelters. Both jobs dried up once everyone began working from home.

She did some grocery deliveries for DoorDash but stopped out of fear of contracting the virus.

Perez now receives $91 in jobless aid every two weeks. She recently began working for Replate again for about 15 to 20 hours a week.

"It is not much compared to what I had before, but it is better than nothing," she said.

Information for this article was contributed by Olivia Rockeman of Bloomberg News and by Christopher Rugaber of The Associated Press.

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