Hurricane Iota, a system that formed Friday in the western Caribbean, has begun a period of rapid intensification as it roils mild waters on its way to landfall late today or Tuesday in Central America. The system is forecast to strike Honduras and Nicaragua with Category 3 or greater intensity.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami has issued hurricane warnings for the northern coast of Nicaragua and eastern Honduras as well as the Island of Providencia, Colombia, where the storm could deal its most significant blow. A hurricane watch was issued for San Andres island, while tropical storm warnings stretch along the central coast of Nicaragua and areas farther west in Honduras.
Iota became a Category 2 hurricane late Sunday afternoon, according to the hurricane center, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph early Sunday evening. It was centered about 80 miles east of Providencia and was moving west at 10 mph.
Iota comes barely a week and a half after Hurricane Eta ravaged Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, at Category 4 strength before causing disastrous, deadly flooding and mudslides in Central America. If the current forecast holds true, then Iota's eyewall, which is the ring of thunderstorms surrounding the calm eye, could directly hit Puerto Cabezas again with potentially extreme winds and storm surge damage.
Iota is the 13th hurricane of the 2020 hurricane season, a feat matched only once before and an indicator of the unrelenting extreme activity; an average season only produces a dozen named storms, including five or six hurricanes.
This year already broke records when Subtropical Storm Theta formed about a week into November, becoming the 29th named storm of the season. The previous record of 28 was set in 2005, a year that featured Hurricanes Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma, all of which attained Category 5 status.
Iota's satellite appearance has become markedly more menacing since Saturday, with the storm exhibiting deep thunderstorms near the center and signs of developing an eye, with its winds likely to spike dramatically during the next 36 hours.
Iota had already rapidly intensified as daylight dawned Sunday, its pace of strengthening showing no signs of slowing down. This makes it the 10th named storm to rapidly intensify during this Atlantic hurricane season.
Computer models and the Hurricane Center alike are spelling a dangerous scenario for Central America in their forecasts, with the often conservative forecast center writing: "Rapid intensification is explicitly forecast for the next 48 hours, with Iota expected to become a Category 4 hurricane before it reaches Central America."
Iota was parked beneath weak upper-level winds, which will allow the system's circulation to develop and strengthen undisturbed by the surrounding environment. In addition, toasty sea surface temperatures in the central and western Caribbean will foster Iota's growth. The only potential limiting factor the system could encounter would be cooler waters offshore of Central America left by Eta, which could be upwelled by the eventual arrival of Iota's winds. In addition, the most intense hurricanes can undergo internal fluctuations that can weaken them temporarily.
In addition to a 10- to 15-foot coastal storm surge and high-end hurricane winds, a serious flood event is said to be brewing. Exceptional rainfall and high precipitation rates are forecast to accompany Hurricane Iota's arrival in Central America, spurring widespread flash flooding and mudslides.
Much of the area at risk was hit with flooding of a similar magnitude from Hurricane Eta. Now, the ground is fully saturated, increasing the risks for additional deadly flooding.
"Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Eta's recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts," the Hurricane Center stated.
A broad 8 to 16 inches of rain is on tap for Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, and southern Belize, with a few 20- to 30-inch totals likely near where the core of Iota tracks as well as in higher-elevation areas, forecasters say. Iota's remnants should exit into the east tropical Pacific by Friday morning.
Information for this article was contributed by Gabriela Selser and Marlon Gonzalez of The Associated Press.