I'd like to take this opportunity to congratulate the fine people of the great state of Arkansas. About half of them, anyway.
There is evidence from statistical science that the Trump insurrection is not as popular here as I had thought--that only 38 percent of you hold that the presidency was stolen from Donald Trump while 51 percent of you think, yeah, Joe Biden won fair enough.
Thirty-eight percent is too high as an insanity quotient, but I'll take it.
And there is evidence from statistical science that about as many of you don't like Sarah Huckabee Sanders as like her. I congratulate the discernment.
But as to the Republicans among you ... well, let's not dwell on negativity. Let's look upon the gardenia buds, not the freezer-burn.
Talk Business and Politics and Hendrix College, partners who have a solid if not perfect polling record in Arkansas in recent years, reported Sunday that a robo-called statewide sample of 535 respondents last week found 43 percent with a favorable view of Sanders and 41 percent with an unfavorable view.
And that's true despite the Republican subsample--too small to be statistically valid but revealing enough to blow through margins of error and warrant prominent mention--showing Sanders with 82 percent approval and 6 percent disapproval.
Arkansas Republicans love them some Donald Trump, don't they? And Sarah is but an appendage.
But if you take the 176 Republicans out of the sample, leaving 171 independents and 140 Democrats and 48 persons who wouldn't or couldn't say, then more of you look upon Sanders unfavorably than favorably. And that absolutely warms the soul of one publicly despondent about the Trumpian madness thought to be imposing a smothering headlock on the state.
This poll doesn't mean Sanders is notably less inevitable as our next governor. It merely means reason has a stronger pulse out there than I thought.
For the record, this poll contradicts a recent one from a Southern Democratic group. It had Sanders uncommonly popular. It also showed Gov. Asa Hutchinson upside down on favorable-unfavorable ratings. This Talk Business/Hendrix survey has him down for sure, from 69 approval to 52. That's significant, but not dire. He may have regained right-wing bona fides by turning down federal supplemental unemployment compensation.
The point in the Talk Business-Hendrix survey is that Hutchinson has a 9-point higher favorable rating than Sanders. That's probably heartening for Jim Hendren's Common Ground Arkansas, which exists to promote something akin to Asa's pragmatic governing over Trump-Sanders resentment and fear-based governing, also known as demagoguery.
Hendren reacted to the poll by going all-in with positivity, texting, "I have been overwhelmed by the hunger out there for people of all parties. They are tired of a minority of politicians with extreme views dominating our state and federal government. Trump fatigue is real and Arkansas is ready to move on."
Sanders' 43-41 situation isn't bad news for Democrats, though yet to come is massive spending by Sanders to explain that the Democratic gubernatorial nominee--any Democratic gubernatorial nominee--is a socialist police-defunder and cancel-culturist who runs an underground railroad leading Guatemalans to our side of State Line Avenue in Texarkana.
Please understand that this snapshot of the TBP-Hendrix poll shows Sanders almost a lock to be the Republican nominee. The other declared candidate, Attorney General Leslie Rutledge, is upside-down at 31-41 in favorable-unfavorable and liked by the Republican subsample only by 48-20, a pitiable distance from Sanders' 82-6.
Since there is no difference between the twins Sanders and Rutledge except that Sanders has Trump's blessing and Rutledge doesn't, it seems Arkansas Republicans are sore at Rutledge merely for having the same and concurrent ambition as Sanders.
But the general election might offer actual competition, these numbers would suggest. Keep in mind, though, that Sanders has reeled in more than $5 million in Trump network funding from across the country.
I'm wondering if that might not be part of Sanders' unfavorable rating--that she seems to be using Arkansas for a national Trumpian purpose, taking the state for granted, big-dogging us, spending most of her time and energy elsewhere.
Others may find encouragement in the finding that only 32 percent of Talk Business-Hendrix respondents approved of the state Legislature while 45 percent disapproved. But grumbling about the no-account Legislature is a long Arkansas tradition. And changing it is a matter of 135 individual circumstances. The dynamic long has been, and may still be, that people vaguely disapprove of any state legislature but specifically like their own legislator, even if it's Trent Garner, Jason Rapert, Bob Ballinger or Robin Lundstrom.
By the way, Biden's approve-disapprove standing in this poll is 40-51. That's not bad for a modern-day national Democrat in our Democrat-abhorring state. But it's bad enough that it demonstrates why Sanders wants to run against Biden.
It seems more strategically wise than running for herself.
John Brummett, whose column appears regularly in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, is a member of the Arkansas Writers' Hall of Fame. Email him at jbrummett@arkansasonline.com. Read his @johnbrummett Twitter feed.