The annual Rural Profile of Arkansas, published by the University of Arkansas System's Division of Agriculture, paints a stark picture of the demographic revolution in this state.
"Rural areas have been challenged over the past several decades by economic and demographic changes and now find the loss of businesses and continuing migration of youth and talent to urban areas of critical concern," writes Robert Scott, director of the UA's Cooperative Extension Service. "Adding to these challenges is the pandemic, which is affecting both rural and urban communities."
In a nutshell, most of the state's 75 counties are losing population and will continue to do so for years to come. Future growth mostly will be confined to three areas: northwest Arkansas, the Little Rock metropolitan area, and the Jonesboro-Paragould corridor.
Among the findings:
• The state's population grew by more than 95,800 from 2010-19, slightly more than half the 6.1 percent national growth rate.
• During that period, the population of what UA researchers defined as the rural region decreased by 3.3 percent. Decreases ranged from 0.3 percent in the highlands to 7 percent in the Gulf Coastal Plain of south Arkansas to 8.3 percent in the Delta.
• Rural counties tend to have an older population than urban counties. In 2019, the median age in the rural region was 42.9 years. It was 37.5 in the urban region.
• The share of those age 65 and older increased from 15 percent in 2010 to 17 percent in 2019. Twenty percent of those in rural counties were 65 and older. It was only 15 percent in the urban counties.
• There were no rural counties with double-digit population growth. Population declined in 48 of 75 counties, including 45 rural counties and three defined as urban (Crittenden, Jefferson and Miller). The largest growth rate was 25 percent in Benton County.
• The highest rate of decline was 18 percent in Phillips County. Of the 12 counties where population declined 10 percent or more, only two were outside the Delta or Gulf Coastal Plain.
• More than half of rural counties lost more than 5 percent of jobs from 2007-18. Seven rural counties lost more than 10 percent of their jobs during that period: Ashley, Clay, Dallas, Little River, Perry, Sharp and Woodruff.
According to the report: "The impacts from covid-19 are affecting rural economies, which are still struggling to fully recover from the Great Recession. In 2018, the rural region had employment numbers 3 percent below their pre-recession levels in 2007. While Arkansas' economy, as measured by total employment, grew steadily since the end of the Great Recession, employment grew by about half the rate of the national economy from 2010-18. During that time, Arkansas' employment grew 9 percent vs. 18 percent nationally.
"The urban region saw employment increase 13 percent from 2010-18 while employment in the rural region remained stagnant. Employment in all three rural areas remained below 2007 levels. ... In 2018, rural counties had an average median household income that was 20 percent lower than urban counties and 35 percent lower than the national average. In 2018, the average median household income of counties in the rural region was about $39,000, compared to $49,000 in the urban region."
Other findings included:
• Rural counties had higher poverty rates (20 percent) than urban counties (16 percent). Within rural regions, the Delta had the highest poverty rate at 23 percent.
• The child poverty rate was 29 percent in the rural region and 22 percent in the urban region. Eighteen percent of all residents and 25 percent of children live below the federal poverty line.
• In the rural region, public school enrollment declined 7 percent during the 10-year period studied.
• About 30 percent of Arkansans age 25 and older had an associate, bachelor's, graduate or professional degree. The national average is 40 percent. Only 23 percent of adults in rural counties had an associate's degree or higher, far less than the 35 percent in urban counties. The Delta had the lowest rates for educational attainment.
"Like much of rural America, rural areas of Arkansas have been greatly affected by the changing structure of the global economy," the report states. "This, in turn, affects the well-being of people living in these areas, as well as population composition, migration and access to resources required to maintain viable communities."
The urbanization of Arkansas continues. In 1900, 91 percent of Arkansans lived in rural areas. That's now down to 41 percent, still far above a 14 percent national figure.
"The changing structure of the Arkansas economy, especially in rural areas, suggests a need to diversify and invest in economic enterprises that utilize and add value to local resources," the report states. "The need for skilled technicians in many industries suggests that those regions with a skilled and dependable workforce will be in a better position to grow."
A key factor in ensuring that rural areas retain viability will be broadband availability. Fortunately, the federal government is showering the state with pandemic relief funds, and part of that money will go for broadband.
"Modern infrastructure is essential for a growing, healthy economy and allows for improved overall quality of life," the report says. "Good infrastructure connects people and businesses to the global economy, provides enhanced opportunities for education and employment and is necessary for the health of residents. Providing this infrastructure is more difficult for some rural counties that have decreasing ability to generate local tax revenue.
"If unable to maintain basic infrastructure, these counties will likely experience a continuing cycle of revenue, infrastructure and economic decline. High-speed Internet access is a quintessential component of modern infrastructure, which the pandemic highlighted. Governmental agencies, workers, students, schools and businesses rely on Internet access to connect them to markets and information. Despite the importance of high-speed broadband in a globalized economy, rural Arkansans' access remains low."
Those living in rural areas are disproportionately impacted by substandard Internet access.
"High-speed broadband availability, especially in rural counties, remains a problem for state and local governments to address," the report says. "However, providing availability doesn't always provide access. Many low-income households cannot afford to purchase computers and connect to the Internet or do not have the knowledge and technical skill to access and use the Internet. Therefore programs are needed to provide financial and technical assistance to these households to enable them to access and use the Internet productively."
The state must focus its resources. When I was at the Delta Regional Authority, we developed an economic plan for the area the DRA serves in parts of eight states. That plan identified what were known as critical mass communities, which tended to be places with a hospital and an institution of higher education. Arkansas must ensure the survival of critical mass communities in areas that are otherwise bleeding population.
The best thing leaders of rural communities can do is to ensure that the closest public school system is as good as it can possibly be.
"People are Arkansas' greatest resource, and the social and economic value of a well-educated population cannot be overstated," the report says. "Investing in education provides a more skilled workforce and lowers poverty rates, which benefits individuals, communities and the state.
"To maintain and improve the state's human capital, improving access to high-quality education from pre-kindergarten to community college and beyond is critical."
Rex Nelson is a senior editor at the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.