We heard the rumblings for a few weeks. Didn't know what to make of it. Other than those rumblings sounded like another made-for-Fox News hype story. That is, the story may not exactly be false, but it was presumably so abnormal that you'd have to visit a dozen websites to find a hint of it. And, of course, some conservative talking heads would run with the story until they could find another fringe, outrageous, off-the-wall anecdote to keep the viewers/listeners on the edge of their seats.
The government spends a lot of money. The government is spending a lot of money on unemployment checks. The government is spending so much money on unemployment that people don't want to work. Yada, yada.
Then the governor was heard from. As most Arkansans know, Asa Hutchinson does things carefully. He's not Ron DeSantis. So why was he making the news by turning down federal money for the unemployed?
Another few days went by. Family members were talking. People at work were talking. And somehow this thing began taking shape.
Then the local news story hit on Sunday this past week. It was written by Nathan Owens on the news side of the operation. And things got real.
It turns out, after all these weeks of quiet doubt, we learn that employers really are having trouble finding folks to fill jobs. And it very well might be that the unemployment benefits are the cause.
Nathan Owens' story quotes several business owners. Restaurants, dry cleaners, retailers and other can't fill jobs. Here's the nut graph:
"The main culprit, critics say, is the extension of a $300 federal unemployment benefit. Combined with the maximum state benefit, weekly unemployment insurance payments can be as much as $751 per week, about $19 an hour, according to Arkansas' Division of Workforce Services. The state's minimum wage is $11 per hour."
Folks can stay home and collect unemployment benefits, and make $8 an hour more than if they went to work. As Dave Barry used to say, WE ARE NOT MAKING THIS UP.
Gov. Asa Hutchinson has already directed the state to end its participation in the federal supplemental program. But not until after June 26. Another 16 of these several states have done the same, because employers are telling political leaders they can't find the help.
Critics of the critics point to a Yale report last year that found no evidence of enhanced unemployment benefits affecting the labor force. But that was last year. Now that restaurants and other venues are reopening, what about the employers in all these states who complain about the lack of applicants?
Then again, there are many economic reports to choose from. One by Bank of America says unemployment insurance benefits certainly do affect whether people look for work -- especially if they made less than $32,000 before the pandemic:
"Our estimates suggest that those who previously made less than $32,000 would be better off in the near term to collect UI benefits than work," said BofA's economists in April -- this April.
And here are a few things business managers told our reporter. (For a much better read than this, see Sunday's anchor story in the Business section.)
"People are getting mad because employees only work Monday, Wednesday, Friday. We had to cut back. But we didn't want to . . . ."
"It was crazy, like they just stopped" applying for jobs in April.
"As long as they are getting a check, that's the only thing we can figure."
Speaking of April, economists all over the board had predicted a million-plus new jobs in the April employment report. Instead, the U.S. economy only added about a quarter of that. Experts called the numbers "disappointing." We'd call them not surprising.
The president said in a speech last week that Americans want to work. Well, yes, they do. But they're not stupid, either. And if they're being paid more to stay at home, American workers are smart enough to know a deal when they're offered one from Uncle Sucker.
Good help is hard to find. It's even harder when the government pays $8 more per hour for folks to stay home.