Fayetteville School Board faces rezoning decision

FAYETTEVILLE -- The School Board plans to update school attendance zones this summer to accommodate a growing population.

Fayetteville schools enrollment is forecast to grow by approximately 1,500 students, or 14.5%, over the next five years, and by 2,983 students, or 30%, in the next decade, according to data provided by Bob Templeton, vice president of the school district segment for Texas-based firm Zonda. Templeton presented a report on demographics and school capacity from the firm during a board work session Tuesday. Board members also discussed their priorities for making zoning decisions.

The board plans to consider priorities and values for rezoning during its monthly meeting today, according to board president Nika Waitsman. The board hopes to decide on zone boundaries in July, which would take effect in the 2023-24 school year, she said.

Zonda provides the district with a report on demographics and housing in the district each semester, according to district spokesman Alan Wilbourn. The last time district boundaries were redrawn was when Owl Creek School opened in 2006, he said.

Zonda develops enrollment projections by looking at the cohort patterns at every elementary campus in the district compared to the local housing forecast, then accounting for each group of students to matriculate into secondary schools, Templeton said. The firm also considers birth rate data to help with kindergarten forecasts, he said.

The functional capacity of each campus is somewhat dynamic because it changes every year depending on how the building is used, Templeton said. He recommended a 10% buffer to accommodate unusually large classes that may come through.

At the elementary school level, Holcomb Elementary is expected to reach capacity by the 2025-26 school year, Happy Hollow Elementary is expected to reach capacity by 2027-28 and Leverett Elementary will reach capacity by 2028-29, according to the report.

McNair Middle School is forecast to reach capacity by the 2025-26 school year, Ramey Junior High by 2029-30 and Fayetteville High School by the 2030-31 school year, the report states.

In comparison, some campuses are underutilized, Templeton said.

Templeton advised the board to create a list of priorities for rezoning. Guiding principles other districts have set include optimizing space, neighborhood unity, natural boundary lines, efficiency, transportation costs, family impact, aligning feeder schools so students stay together in elementary and secondary schools, and balancing funding and program equity.

Some guiding principles will work against each other, so board members will have to prioritize their values, he said. Once the board develops a list of priorities, Templeton said he can put together maps and numbers to show how they will impact boundary lines.

Key findings

• Fayetteville Public Schools had nearly 2,029 total home sales in 2021, an 8% decrease from 2020 totals.

• Within the School District, there are roughly 240 homes under construction, 1,200 lots available to build on and more than 2,100 future lots planned.

• The district has 10,349 students.

• It is projected to enroll more than 11,800 students by 2026-27 and more than 13,300 students by 2031-32.

Source: Zonda Education