Clinton’s clout fading?

LITTLE ROCK — With the election nearing, Bill Clinton made two swings through Arkansas to help five fellow Democrats - all of whom lost.

Is the former governor and nation’s 42nd president losing his political grip in the state?

That depends, not surprisingly, on who you ask and what his party affiliation is.

Republicans say that Clinton’s clout couldn’t overcome a poor slate of candidates, and suggested Clinton’s wattage may be dimming. Democrats don’t see any waning of the presidential star power.

“Based on the crowds we had, he’s still wildly popular. The lines to see him were long and they included Republicans,” said Gabe Holmstrom, a Democratic strategist who worked for Chad Causey’s unsuccessful bid to retain the party’s seat in the 1st Congressional District. Clinton appeared with Causey in Batesville, Paragould and Jonesboro in October and held a Little Rock fundraiser in September that netted several hundred thousand dollars. “This was just a year where having a ‘D’ next to your name was an albatross around your neck.”

Clinton remains popular among Democrats, polls say.

An October Gallup poll showed 48 percent of Democrats believed a Clinton campaign appearance would make them more likely to vote for a candidate - 6 points higher than President Barack Obama.

Carolyn Staley, Clinton’s childhood friend who benefited from a $250-a-ticket fundraiser with the former president in September, lost her race for state representative in west Little Rock.

She said Clinton’s support only helped her. She said his bipartisan work with Republican former presidents and the reputation of the William J. Clinton Foundation have only added to her friend’s luster.

“I don’t think it has any reflection on him; he’s arguably the most popular and powerful person in the world,” she said.

The former Arkansas governor remains well-liked in his home state, but Clinton’s popularity isn’t necessarily a gamechanger. A CNN exit poll of 2,199 Arkansans on Tuesday revealed that Clinton had a 58 percent favorable rating here, but only 60 percent of those who viewed him favorably voted for Sen. Blanche Lincoln, who Clinton campaigned for vigorously in the primary andgeneral elections.

By contrast, the 38 percent of Arkansans with unfavorable impressions of Clinton voted overwhelmingly - 89 percent - for U.S. Rep. John Boozman.

University of Arkansas at Little Rock political science professor Art English said Clinton could only have made a difference in a tight race. Lincoln’s loss to Boozman wasn’t close. Neither was Democrat Joyce Elliott’s rout by GOP candidate Tim Griffin in the 2nd District. Causey lost to Republican Rick Crawford by about 9 percentage points.

“[Clinton] has made a difference in the past, but this year there was nothing he could do,” English said.

Lieutenant-governor candidate Shane Broadway, helped out by Clinton, narrowly lost.

Some friends of Bill fared better in Arkansas in 2010.

Courtney Henry, with help from Clinton, was elected to the state Supreme Court in May.

And U.S. Rep. Mike Ross held on to his 4th District congressional seat. While Clinton didn’t attend any Ross campaign events this fall, the ex-president attended a Hot Springs fundraiser for Ross in fall 2009. He also recorded campaign commercials for his friend and protege.

A losing record for Clinton in Arkansas contrasts with sunnier results in California, where five of six Democratic candidates that Clinton appeared with won, including Gov.-elect Jerry Brown, Lt. Gov.-elect Gavin Newsom and U.S. Rep. Loretta Sanchez.

Overall, according to a list provided by the Clinton Foundation, Clinton participated in 133 events on behalf of 88 state, municipal and federal candidates this year.

Of those, 33 have won outright and five more are ahead of their Republican opponents in close-fought contests.

For every high-profile clunker such as U.S. Senate candidates Martha Coakley of Massachusetts or Joe Sestak of Pennsylvania, Clinton picked winners, including North Carolina’s U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada and West Virginia’s Sen.-elect Joe Manchin.

Clinton didn’t respond to requests for comment Thursday.

State Republicans cast a more skeptical eye on Clinton’s performance in Arkansas.Party Chairman Doyle Webb said endorsements - even Clinton’s - don’t matter as much as “the quality of the candidates.”

“He may have had some influence in the 1st District, but he didn’t appear to have any influence in the Senate race or the 2nd [District] race,” Webb said. “With all due respect to the former president, each year his influence is diminishing in Arkansas because fewer and fewer people remember him or have a linkage” to him.

Mariah Hatta, executive director of the state Democratic Party, said Clinton’s presence was a plus.

“It was a bad year for Democrats. We’re not immune. We would welcome back the Clintons to help us in any way they can,” Hatta said.