LITTLE ROCK — Reverberations from Dustin McDaniel’s political demise continue to be felt on the Democratic side in the potentially epic governor’s race of 2014.
Republicans seem to be settling on Asa Hutchinson on a two-part premise.
One part is that Asa has earned the nomination with his compilation of a fine resume and his long-suffering service to the party in leaner times. The other is that the state’s political climate has become so friendly to Republicans that the GOP could win, even with a candidate who lacks evident warmth or skills of personal engagement.
Conversely, Democrats are in such decline that they doubt they could afford to field a nominee lacking evident warmth and skills of personal engagement. That is to say they need someone other than the raging opportunist, Bill Halter.
The conundrum for Democrats is that their best general-election candidate would be Mike Ross, the recently departed (from Congress) Blue Dog congressman from South Arkansas. But a multi-candidate primary in a newly made two-party structure could be problematic for him.
Ross has been heard lately telling people that it concerns him that he could not get away as easily in 2014 with conservative positions that Mike Beebe got away with in 2006.
Beebe was unopposed in the Democratic primary. He had nailed down the money and organization.
Gays could only huff about Beebe’s insensitivity, which served his general-election interests in a state still tragically mean-spirited toward gays.
And women’s groups could only trust that Beebe was better than he sounded when he finessed abortion issues, saying he was against abortion but was not in favor of unconstitutional laws.
Even now, more than six years later, Beebe still plays that peek-a-boo game on abortion at the state Capitol.
It’s the same as in 1957. Then the moderates around here were the ones saying “follow the law” on school integration. They dared not express the basic humanity that black people deserved greater opportunity.
Now moderates say “follow the law” on abortion choice. They dare not express the basic humanity that women deserve to be treated as more than reproduction instruments.
If Ross were to try those Beebe like positions in a primary in 2014 with four or five candidates-so that he might protect his conservative Democratic base in Southern Arkansas-then he might well find himself forced into a runoff with someone cynically playing to the liberal base.
Halter, that is.
Then Ross would be at the mercy of turnout in a runoff in which people opposing him would be more fired up than people favoring him.
There are only enough liberals in Arkansas to mess up a Democratic primaryfor the general election.
If he could get to the general election, Ross would give Hutchinson a race. If Halter got there after going left, and lacking much personal appeal, he’d likely get drubbed.
Ross may not run, either for political or personal reasons. He only recently settled into a new private-sector job. His family may not be thrilled with the idea of his candidacy.
In case he doesn’t run, Democrats have been foundering around for another anti-Halter or Beebe Junior.
They tell me Beebe made his apparent preference known in private conversations at the Slovak Oyster Supper. He talked up Chris Thomason, the 39-year-old former legislator and prosecutor from Hope who now is chancellor of the community college in Hope.
Beebe sees Thomason as a chip off his own old block, a young man of humble means who has accomplished much, honing a record of political moderation as a legislator and competence in other jobs.
Thomason has no opening if Ross runs. He has a niche if South Arkansas has no other candidate.
There also is John Burkhalter, a wealthy businessman and highway commissioner from Jacksonville. He might be dismissable in terms of evident personal political skills. But he bears watching on account of having a lot of money.
And state Sen. Keith Ingram of West Memphis, of an old ruling Eastern Arkansas Democratic family, has expressed interest in running. He proposes to inherit McDaniel’s Delta base and mount a loyal resistance to Halter, whose primary opposition to Blanche Lincoln in 2010 offended many establishment Democrats in Eastern Arkansas.
Shane Broadway has been mentioned, but only as an alternative to Chris Thomason, himself an alternative to Ross.
Actually, it’s conceivable that Hutchinson could get Republican primary opposition. State Sen. Johnny Key of Mountain Home is thinking about that and there has been promotional talk for state Sen. Missy Irvin of Mountain View.
Hutchinson probably would rout both, although Irvin’s energy would worry just about anybody.
The best race, competitively speaking, is Hutchinson versus Ross. It would be a battle of light-heavyweights, at least.
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John Brummett’s column appears regularly in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. Email him at jbrummett@arkansasonline.com. Read his blog at brummett.arkansasonline.com, or his @johnbrummett Twitter feed.
Editorial, Pages 15 on 02/12/2013