Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is far ahead of Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in Arkansas, where she once was first lady, according to a poll conducted in the state.
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Among self-described "very likely voters," 59 percent support the New York businessman while 36 percent favor the former secretary of state. Another 4 percent back a third-party or independent candidate in Tuesday's election.
The 504 very likely voters were among 800 in a survey conducted by Issues and Answers Network Inc., a nonpartisan market research company from Virginia Beach, Va. The margin of error for the group of very likely voters was plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
The 18th annual Arkansas Poll, which was unveiled Wednesday, was conducted between Oct. 18 and Oct. 27 and is sponsored by the University of Arkansas' Diane D. Blair Center of Southern Politics and Society.
[INTERACTIVE: 2016 election coverage]
Reader poll
Who are you going to vote for president in the 2016 election?
- Hillary Clinton
- Donald Trump
- Gary Johnson
- Dr. Jill Stein
- Evan McMullin
- Other
1380 total votes.
The survey was completed before the FBI announced an investigation of emails that are potentially relevant to Clinton's use of a private server while she was secretary of state.
UA political science professor Janine Parry, the poll's designer, said Trump's strong showing is further evidence that the state is now "thoroughly and vehemently Republican."
"I don't think we see anything unexpected here. Arkansans, with the exception of Bill Clinton, of course, in '92 and '96, have long voted for the Republican presidential candidates, and this is another part of that pattern," she said.
Republican Party of Arkansas spokesman Lauren Montgomery said Trump's double-digit lead reflects dissatisfaction with the Democratic standard-bearer.
"It just really is a testament to how much people in this state dislike Hillary. The people who know her the best are clearly the ones not voting for her," she said.
Democratic Party of Arkansas spokesman H.L. Moody said "nobody's surprised" by the poll.
Although thousands of Arkansans are committed Clinton supporters, "we knew going into this election that we live in a red state and there's a Republican majority," he said.
The poll indicates that the GOP advantage isn't confined to the presidential race; it's stretching over into the U.S. Senate race as well.
Among very likely voters who voiced a preference, Republican U.S. Sen. John Boozman led Democrat Conner Eldridge, 61 percent to 38 percent.
Voters were split on Issue 6, the proposed Arkansas Medical Marijuana Amendment. Among very likely voters, 49 percent favored it, 47 percent opposed it and 4 percent were either undecided or refused to say how they would vote.
"It's going to be a coin flip again," Parry said, noting that a previous medical-marijuana measure was narrowly defeated in 2012.
Overall, the Arkansas Poll surveyed 800 Arkansans and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Because of rounding, the numbers don't always add up to 100 percent.
Asked to name the most important issue or problem facing Arkansans today, the top answers were: the economy, 27 percent; health care, 19 percent; politicians and politics, 14 percent; education, 13 percent; crime, 13 percent; and taxes, 5 percent. Nine percent listed another issue, said they didn't know or refused to answer.
Most Arkansans said they approved of the state's trajectory, and a majority didn't express dissatisfaction with the state's top elected officials. Fifty-seven percent said Arkansas is generally headed in the right direction; 26 percent said it's headed the wrong way. Seventeen percent said they didn't know or refused to answer.
Sixty percent said they approve of Republican Gov. Asa Hutchinson, 17 percent disapproved and 23 percent were undecided or wouldn't say.
Boozman had 35 percent approval and 25 percent disapproval, with 40 percent undecided or declining to answer.
U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton, also a Republican, had 45 percent approval and 27 percent disapproval, with 28 percent not offering an opinion.
President Barack Obama, on the other hand, remains unpopular in Arkansas. The Democrat gets approval from 37 percent and disapproval from 56 percent. Eight percent didn't express an opinion.
His health care policies also are widely panned. Twenty-five percent had a favorable opinion about "the health reform law," 47 percent had an unfavorable view and 28 percent didn't offer an opinion.
For the first time since the Arkansas Poll started in 1999, the survey found more Republicans than Democrats in the state.
Overall, 29 percent called themselves Republicans; 25 percent Democrats; and 37 percent independents. Three percent said they belong to another party and 7 percent had no affiliation or declined to reveal it.
Among self-described independents, 37 percent lean Republican; 18 percent lean Democratic; 40 percent said they're "just independent"; and 5 percent didn't know or wouldn't say.
Parry said the shift in party identification has been "glacial" but consistent since 1999.
A Section on 11/03/2016