OPINION

Not looking forward to 2019

On Friday, federal prosecutors dropped two bombshells.

First, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York filed a sentencing memo regarding Michael Cohen, President Trump's former personal lawyer, stating as a fact that the president had been involved with hush-money payments to two women with whom he'd allegedly had affairs.

And second, special counsel Robert Mueller III's office issued a document saying Trump's former campaign chairman Paul Manafort had lied to prosecutors even after agreeing to cooperate.

The danger to Trump is obvious: Prosecutors will tie him to offenses serious enough to warrant impeachment and the Democrats who will take control of the House in January will quickly oblige. Even if Trump manages to hold onto enough Republican votes in the Senate to avoid being removed from office, the process is likely to be humiliating.

Impeachment would also be dangerous for Senate Republicans. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is a wizard at using Senate procedure to protect his caucus from hard votes. But if the House impeaches the president, McConnell can't simply refuse to hold a trial. Which means that if Trump is impeached, each Republican senator would ultimately have to justify either voting to get rid of a president still popular with much of the Republican base or endorsing whatever transgression had put him in the dock.

But the greatest danger may be the one facing Democrats: The investigations end up with not quite enough evidence to justify impeachment and the Democrats go ahead and impeach Trump anyway. If the activists clamor loud enough, impeachment may well happen simply because no one in the Democratic caucus wants to be the one who breaks the bad news to them.

The result would be a replay of the Clinton impeachment, only with each team taking the other side of the field. Democrats would have their own problems--Sen. Charles Schumer and Rep. Nancy Pelosi trying to explain why Trump's behavior is worse than a president having sex with a 22-year-old White House intern and then concealing the affair with a spot of perjury. But those arguments, no matter how ingenious, wouldn't travel well outside of the left's ideological bubble. Explaining that everything has changed since the #MeToo movement arrived wouldn't be much help.

If the push for impeachment is about the legal violations involved in covering up some sexual impropriety instead of Russia's election interference it will probably backfire, just as the Clinton impeachment blew up for Republicans. And while #MeToo may have changed the calculus in Washington, there are still millions of less politically engaged voters across the country who don't necessarily thrill to the call of identity politics or want Congress to undertake a forensic investigation of the president's sexual history. If that's where all this ends up, Democrats are likely to regret it. This is a lot of "ifs" all strung in a row. Unfortunately none of them can be resolved until Mueller speaks, revealing the extent of the possible allegations. About the only thing that's certain right now is that the next year is going to be one of the uglier, angrier entries in the annals of American history.

Editorial on 12/13/2018

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