LEXINGTON, Ky. -- Quade Green's announcement Wednesday that he is transferring from the University of Kentucky men's basketball program makes the sophomore guard the continuation of a recent trend.
The Philadelphia product is the fifth transfer and the eighth player with remaining eligibility to exit UK by a manner other than the NBA draft since 2015-16.
In what is the 10th season of what history will record as the one-and-done era in Kentucky basketball, the UK program finds itself in something of a quandary.
John Calipari has proven beyond doubt during his UK tenure (2009-10 through the present) that the "one-and-done model" can produce boffo NCAA Tournament success -- when Kentucky is able to sign elite talent.
Starting with the recruiting class of 2009 through 2015, Kentucky signed at least one player ranked in the top five of the Rivals 150 every year.
In 2009, UK signed the No. 1 (John Wall) and No. 2 (DeMarcus Cousins) prospects. For 2011, Kentucky got No. 2 (Anthony Davis), No. 3 (Michael Kidd-Gilchrist) and No. 5 (Marques Teague).
UK's 2013 class included No. 2 (Julius Randle) and No. 5 (Andrew Harrison).
It is no coincidence that, from 2010 through 2015, Kentucky's NCAA Tournament record was a robust 22-4 with five trips to the Elite Eight, four visits to the Final Four, two NCAA finals appearances and the 2012 national championship.
Conversely, since 2016, Kentucky has failed to sign a single player ranked in the top five of the Rivals 150.
Which is not to say that UK has recruited poorly. It has not.
Calipari's 2016 class included the No. 6 (De'Aaron Fox), No. 7 (Bam Adebayo) and No. 9 (Malik Monk, Bentonville) prospects.
Kentucky's 2017 haul brought six prospects in the top 34 of the Rivals 150 but only one top-10 player (Kevin Knox at No. 10).
The 2018 class -- UK's current freshmen -- had no prospect ranked in the top 10 by Rivals, but did boast five signees between No. 11 and 36.
Since Kentucky has entered this lull in attracting top-five players, the difference in the Wildcats' NCAA Tournament results is stark.
Starting in 2015-16, UK is "only" 6-3 in the Dance with two round-of-16 trips and one Elite Eight.
Yet the lack of top-five recruits is only half of the predicament in which Kentucky basketball finds itself.
If nothing else, the past three NCAA Tournaments have shown one does not have to have elite, one-and-done talent to play for national championships.
When Villanova beat North Carolina in the 2016 NCAA finals, Jay Wright's Wildcats started two seniors, two juniors and a freshman, while Roy Williams' Tar Heels started two seniors, a junior and two sophomores.
In 2017, when North Carolina bested Gonzaga for all the marbles, UNC started two seniors and three juniors, while Gonzaga started a senior, three redshirt juniors and a redshirt sophomore.
Last season, when Villanova beat Michigan to claim its second NCAA crown in three years, the Philadelphia Wildcats started three redshirt juniors, a true junior and a redshirt freshman. Meanwhile, the Men of Beilein started a senior, a redshirt junior, a true junior, a sophomore and a freshman.
UK's dilemma is that, at least for right now, it is not getting the creme de la creme from the one-and-done pool. Yet, for reasons of program incentives, Kentucky cannot build a veteran core, a la the Villanova model, of good players to compensate.
Of the eight undrafted players who have left UK since 2015-16 with remaining eligibility, three (Isaiah Briscoe, Isaac Humphries and Wenyen Gabriel) turned pro without hearing Adam Silver (or his deputies) call their names on draft night.
Among the transfers, Green joined Marcus Lee, Charles Matthews and Sacha Killeya-Jones in exiting with an apparent belief they would have a better chance to develop in a program where new recruits do not so often crowd out veterans.
(Tai Wynyard, the fifth transfer, left after ending his redshirt sophomore season at UK under suspension for violating team rules).
Bottom line: As a rule, prospects who choose Kentucky are still looking to make the quickest exit possible from Lexington.
Yet when those players are not at the level of John Wall, Anthony Davis and Karl-Anthony Towns, UK is finding such short stays produce less bountiful team results.
Going forward, that's the pickle from which Kentucky basketball has to extract itself.
Given the fickle nature of teen culture, there would seem a better chance of the top prospects from future classes swinging back toward Kentucky than there is of Calipari rebranding Kentucky as a place where veteran college players thrive.
Sports on 12/15/2018