Democrats hope for momentum, Republicans aim to expand in Arkansas election

Jeffery Ridgle (bottom right) fills out paperwork Monday morning before getting in line for early voting at the Sidney S. McMath Library on John Barrow Road in Little Rock.
Jeffery Ridgle (bottom right) fills out paperwork Monday morning before getting in line for early voting at the Sidney S. McMath Library on John Barrow Road in Little Rock.

Arkansas Democrats hope to gain some ground in public offices decided in Tuesday's general election, while Arkansas Republicans aim to expand their control of the Legislature.

A surge of people has cast ballots in early voting, and a spokesman for Republican Secretary of State Mark Martin stopped short of forecasting what share of the state's 1.78 million registered voters will turn out for this election.

"Going back to at least 2004, turnout in midterm general elections averages around 50 [percent]. It's around 65 [percent] in presidential years. Those numbers are generally pretty consistent, so we will see," said Martin's spokesman, Chris Powell.

In 2014, 50.43 percent of Arkansas' 1.69 million registered voters cast ballots in the general election, and 47.61 percent of the state's then 1.63 million voters turned out for the 2010 general election, according to the secretary of state's website.

This year, more than 350,000 early votes and 20,000 absentee ballots have been cast so far, the secretary of state's office reported.

In central Arkansas, Pulaski County Elections Director Bryan Poe said he's expecting 55 percent of the county's 245,000 registered voters to turn out. Saline County Clerk Doug Curtis said he's forecasting a 60 percent turnout of that county's 76,000 registered voters.

In Northwest Arkansas, Benton County election administrator Dana Caller said she expects a turnout of between 60 percent and 65 percent of the county's 159,000 registered voters. Jennifer Price, election coordinator in Washington County, said election officials there expect more than 50 percent of the county's 131,000 voters to turn out.

In eastern Arkansas, Craighead County Election Coordinator Jennifer Clack said she is projecting a turnout of 40 percent of the county's 59,000 registered voters. In western Arkansas, Sebastian County election coordinator Meghan Hassler said she's hoping for 50 percent turnout of 70,000 voters.

On Tuesday, Arkansans will choose all four members of the U.S. House of Representatives and all seven state constitutional officers. Republicans currently hold all of those offices, plus the two U.S. Senate seats.

Other elections Tuesday are for state Supreme Court justice, 100 state representatives and 18 state senators, as well as for county and city elected officials. Republicans hold a majority of both houses of the state Legislature.

Voters also will decide the fate of a proposed constitutional amendment to authorize the state to issue licenses for four full-fledged casinos, including expanding existing gambling operations at tracks in Hot Springs and West Memphis, and new casinos in Jefferson and Pope counties.

They'll also decide on a proposed initiated act to incrementally raise the state's minimum wage by $2.50 an hour to $11 by 2021, and a proposed constitutional amendment to allow the Legislature to enact a law to require voters to present photo IDs at the polls in order for their votes to count. A 2017 state law already requires voters to present photo IDs. The state Supreme Court upheld that in a ruling last month.

Jay Barth, a politics professor at Hendrix College in Conway, said he expects voters to approve the casino proposal, although there's always been concern among Arkansans about expanding casinos.

Janine Parry, a political science professor at the University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, said voters could reject the ballot proposal based on their historic reluctance to embrace full-fledged casino gambling.

This is the first year since 2000 that a proposed casino amendment is on the ballot. And it's the first gambling-related proposal in 10 years.

In 2006, voters approved Amendment 84 authorizing raffles and bingo games run by charities, religious organizations and other nonprofit groups. In 2008, they approved Amendment 87, which authorized the Legislature to create a state lottery to raise money for college scholarships.

[2018 ELECTION: Full Democrat-Gazette coverage of Arkansas races]

JUSTICE'S RACE

Republican Gov. Asa Hutchinson of Rogers is seeking re-election to his second four-year term against Democratic nominee Jared Henderson of Little Rock and Libertarian candidate Mark West of Batesville.

But, according to two political scientists, the most uncertain statewide race pits state Supreme Court Justice Courtney Goodson of Fayetteville against state Department of Human Services Chief Counsel David Sterling of Little Rock. It's a nonpartisan judicial runoff. The general election was held in May.

In 2014, Sterling lost in a Republican primary runoff for attorney general to now-Attorney General Leslie Rutledge. In 2016, Goodson, a justice, lost to then-Circuit Judge Dan Kemp of Mountain View for chief justice.

Barth said this Supreme Court race "is very unpredictable" with several factors at play.

There is "the controversial nature of Justice Goodson," but "she has justice in front of her name" on the ballot, and she's a woman in an election cycle in which that's seen as an advantage, he said.

Barth said Sterling has been the beneficiary of advertising by the Washington, D.C.-based Republican State Leadership Committee and has political ties to the state Republican Party that's popular in the state.

But he said Goodson made an issue of that out-of-state money through a series of her own ads and filed a lawsuit to halt the group's attack ads. A federal judge Thursday rejected Goodson's request to stop the group from continuing to air its ads.

Parry handicapped the race this way: "I think it's anybody's guess."

U.S. HOUSE SEATS

Among the four congressional seats to be decided Tuesday, Democratic state Rep. Clarke Tucker's bid to oust Republican U.S. Rep. French Hill has been the most hotly contested race.

"In the 2nd District, we have seen them fight back and forth," state Democratic Party Chairman Michael John Gray of Augusta said. "It is going to be close."

State Republican Party Chairman Doyle Webb of Benton said he expects Hill and the state's other three congressmen to win re-election.

"We feel good about turnout in the 2nd District. French Hill has campaigned hard. He's hit the right issues and it has resonated with people out in the district," Webb said.

LEGISLATIVE SEATS

Republicans hold 25 of the state Senate's 35 seats, while the Democrats have nine; one seat is vacant.

The GOP occupies 75 of the state House's 100 seats with Democrats holding 23; an independent holds one and there's a vacant seat. The Republicans won control of the Legislature for the first time since Reconstruction in the 2012 election.

"At the end of the day, you could see no net change, but some changes in both directions," Barth said.

"As far as what we are going to win, I think we have an opportunity in a handful of legislative races," said Gray, who is also a state representative. "I may be a little too pragmatic as a chair and not naming 10 to 12 [legislative seats], but I think there is some opportunity to pick up two or three if the cards fall right."

Webb said it's difficult to gauge the outcome of legislative races.

"Some races are close. Pickup races are close, and so it is likely that we will end up with 76 or more [seats in the House]," he said. "The faces may be different making up those numbers than they are now, which means we could lose some and pick up some."

Gray said Fayetteville Democrat Denise Garner's bid to oust state Rep. Charlie Collins, R-Fayetteville, "is neck and neck right now."

Collins has been a champion of a 2017 state law that allows concealed weapons holders with extra training to carry their weapons on college campuses and some other public places.

"We are seeing pretty impressive early vote turnout up in Washington and Benton counties, so that one has to be in play," Gray said.

Webb said the Garner-Collins race will be a close one.

"We believe that Charlie will prevail," he said. "He won't quit until every vote is counted."

"I think we may surprise somebody else up there" in Northwest Arkansas, Gray said. "If we don't get there, we will get a lot closer than people expected."

In central Arkansas, Gray said Jacksonville Democrat Jonathan Crossley has worked hard for a year in his bid to defeat Republican Rep. Karilyn Brown of Sherwood.

"I think we have a legitimate shot of winning there," he said.

But Webb said, "Our numbers show Karilyn winning comfortably" because she reflects her conservative House district.

Gray said Bismarck Democrat Alan Hughes has a large volunteer base in his bid to oust Republican Rep. Laurie Rushing of Hot Springs.

He also wondered what happens in House District 11 in southeast Arkansas now that Rep. Mark McElroy became an independent.

McElroy of Tillar abandoned the Democratic Party during candidate filing this year after another Democrat, former Circuit Judge Don Glover of Dermott, announced his bid for House District 11. The Republican candidate is Ricky Lattimore of Dermott.

Gray has a race of his own. Republican Craig Christensen of Bald Knob seeks to oust Gray from House District 47.

"I think we're going to win, but it is going to be closer than it should," Gray said.

"Getting through that ideological brand that the nationals are giving us is tough for everybody out there right now," he said. "While the national stuff probably helps in a metro area type race like Denise Garner's, it doesn't do anything for people in a rural race."

Webb said, "It's possible that we could defeat the chairman of the state Democrat Party. There is a lot of movement up there. It is a strong [President Donald] Trump district."

Jacksonville Republican Linda Dyson "stands a very good chance of winning" against former Rep. Mark Perry, D-Jacksonville, Webb said of House District 42. He said Dyson had worked hard and knocked on many doors in the district.

But Perry said, "I have worked hard and campaigned and talked to people who I have known for 32 years. We are running scared. Hopefully, Tuesday night we'll have good results."

Cherokee Village Republican Marsh Davis could prevail against Rep. Scott Baltz, D-Pocahontas, Webb said.

"The conservative base is moving in that district and turning out," he said.

But Baltz said, "I think I have quite a bit of support.

"If folks don't like what I'm doing, it may be time for somebody else. [But] I'm really not hearing that from the people I'm talking to."

In House District 22, Rep. Mickey Gates, R-Hot Springs, faces Democrat Kevin Rogers of Hot Springs. This summer, Gates was charged with failure to pay state income taxes. The case is pending.

As far as state Senate races, Webb said, "We see movement in the Dawn Clemence race against [Rep.] Greg Leding."

Clemence is a Fayetteville Republican. Leding is a Fayetteville Democrat.

"We could see a victory there, and we see the other Senate candidates winning comfortably," so Republicans could end up with 26 or 27 seats, Webb said.

"There is not going to be a blue wave in Arkansas because of our conservative beliefs and our satisfaction with our elected officials," he said.

"I think in this one, everybody that is running for office today as a Democrat knew the odds -- the polls were against you, the momentum has been against you and they are running anyway for what they believe in and also to do the work" toward rebuilding the Democratic Party, Gray said.

"I think what we'll see coming out of Election Day is, we'll see places where you would think a Democrat shouldn't waste their time running get 35 percent to 40 percent where conventional wisdom says they will get none," he said. "I think it builds you a volunteer base and some momentum in those areas, but also shows that with continued work, those seats are winnable."

SundayMonday on 11/04/2018

Upcoming Events