FRISCO, Texas -- A narrative has taken hold that Ezekiel Elliott won't miss any regular-season games.
An assumption persists that the league's leading rusher has made his point and now it's time for both sides to lock arms, break out in a brief rendition of "Kumbaya" and get this done. Before exploring this theory further, let's ask one, small question.
Why?
The idea that both sides will put aside their differences and resolve the holdout in the next few days is based on sheer optimism, not sound negotiating strategy. It's grounded in an emotional need to tie up loose ends before the season starts, not reality.
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said Wednesday on his radio show that "we have to be prepared to be without any given player. We very well may play without a player that is not coming in on his contract. We'll play, and we'll play well."
The only leverage Elliott has ever had in this holdout is the threat that he'll miss games, that his absence will undermine the team's success. The possibility of this should persuade Coach Jason Garrett, who finds himself in the final year of his contract, to lobby on the player's behalf.
The fear of jeopardizing a promising season will prove to be too much for Jones, who will then overlook the fact Elliott has two years left on his contract and give the star the contract he craves.
If Elliott capitulates now, that won't happen. He won't soar past Todd Gurley. The only chance that happens is if he stays in Cabo and the Cowboys stumble in September.
Put aside your thoughts on what should happen or what the running back deserves. It doesn't matter if you believe the Cowboys should hold the line or you find yourself on Team Elliott, proclaiming, "just pay the man."
The focus here is leverage.
The Cowboys open the season with two division foes in New York and Washington. A home date against Miami follows.
Dallas has swept the Giants the last two seasons. Two of those wins came without Elliott.
The Cowboys split with Washington last season and have won five of the last six games between the two teams. Elliott was suspended during one of those wins.
After facing two NFC East opponents, the Cowboys host a Dolphins team that lost seven of the eight games it played on the road last season.
The Cowboys aren't inclined to concede a slow start if they don't have Elliott, especially with how good rookie Tony Pollard and this defense have looked. A 3-0 start isn't assured, but if that unfolds, what happens to negotiations then?
The same thing that happens if the Cowboys drop a game or two early. The dynamics of the talks change.
The leverage shifts.
The gap in average salary between Gurley, who tops the running back list at $14.3 million, and Le'Veon Bell, next at $13.1 million, isn't the issue. Where Elliott lands in relation to those two should be easy to navigate.
It's the gulf in guaranteed money that makes these negotiations difficult. Bell got $27 million. Gurley got $45 million.
In recent days, Elliott has retweeted a post from former NFL lineman Joe Thomas that the Cowboys should come in above Gurley.
Hall of Fame running back Marshall Faulk shares an agent with Elliott and is in Cabo now training with him. Faulk told a reporter the question shouldn't be whether or not Elliott is willing to miss games to become the league's highest-paid running back.
The question should be if the Cowboys are willing to let Elliott miss games so they don't make him the highest paid.
Are those the signals sent by someone intending to accept a deal closer to Bell so he can play on Sept. 8? Why authorize those close to you to make these comments when you are the one who will have to walk them back a few days later?
Nothing is imminent. The resolve of both sides is about to be tested in a way it hasn't at any other stage of these negotiations. Is the club's concern of starting without Elliott greater than the financial pain of $226,647 that will be inflicted on the running back for every game he misses?
Are you confident Ezekiel Elliott will be on the field against the Giants to open the season, or simply hopeful?
Sports on 08/29/2019