COLLEGE FOOTBALL: Rex Nelson's predictions for week 9

NWA Democrat-Gazette/CHARLIE KAIJO Arkansas tight end Cheyenne O’Grady (85) carries the ball for a score Saturday, October 19, 2019 during the third quarter of a football game at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville.
NWA Democrat-Gazette/CHARLIE KAIJO Arkansas tight end Cheyenne O’Grady (85) carries the ball for a score Saturday, October 19, 2019 during the third quarter of a football game at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville.

We’re talking history at this point.

If the football program at the University of Arkansas ever returns to respectability, you’ll be able to tell the grandchildren: “I lived through the worst period in modern Razorback history.”

Here are some of the sobering numbers in the wake of Arkansas’ 51-10 loss to Auburn in Fayetteville last Saturday:

— Though there weren’t nearly that many people actually in their seats, the announced attendance Saturday was 54,619 in a stadium that holds almost 75,000 people. That’s the smallest Fayetteville crowd since 2003 and the smallest crowd to witness a Southeastern Conference game in Fayetteville since before the stadium was expanded in 2001. Let’s put it in perspective: Almost twice as many people attended the Arkansas State Fair in Little Rock on Saturday as attended the Razorback game in Fayetteville. If there’s one factor more than any other that will force the Arkansas athletic director’s hand on a quick coaching change, it’s apathy. And apathy has firmly set in across Arkansas when it comes to Razorback football.

— Arkansas, which fell to 2-5 overall and 0-4 in SEC play, lost its 15th consecutive SEC game.

— Saturday’s 41-point margin was the largest so far during that losing streak.

— Chad Morris is now 0-12 against SEC opponents.

As we’ve stated before, there’s good college football being played in Arkansas this season. It’s just not in Fayetteville. The other Arkansas teams that played on Saturday went 7-1 against out-of-state foes.

We were 8-1 on our picks for the week, making the season record 49-13.

Here are the selections for this week’s games:

Alabama 49, Arkansas 19 — As you know by now, Tua Tagovailoa won’t be playing for Alabama on Saturday following an ankle injury in the Crimson Tide’s 35-13 win against Tennessee. Will it matter much? We doubt it. The No. 1 Tide is 7-0 with victories of 42-3 over Duke, 62-10 over New Mexico State, 47-23 over South Carolina, 49-7 over Southern Mississippi, 59-31 over Ole Miss, 47-28 over Texas A&M and 35-13 over Tennessee. The closest margin of victory has been 19 points. And Nick Saban will see to it that his team isn’t looking ahead to LSU.

Texas State 35, Arkansas State 33 — This is a winnable game for ASU, which fell to 3-4 overall and 1-2 in Sun Belt Conference play last Thursday night with a 37-20 loss to Louisiana-Lafayette. The Red Wolves, though, have lost four starters to injury on defense in addition to losing their quarterback on offense. To put it simply, they can’t stop anyone. ASU’s best chance is for redshirt freshman quarterback Layne Hatcher to have a great night in a high-scoring shootout. Hatcher was 23 of 34 passing for 303 yards and two touchdowns in the loss to Louisiana-Lafayette. Texas State is 2-4 overall. The wins have come by scores of 37-34 over Georgia State and 24-3 over Nicholls State. The losses have been by scores of 41-7 to Texas A&M, 23-14 to Wyoming, 47-17 to SMU and 24-14 to Louisiana-Monroe.

Sam Houston State 28, UCA 25 — The Bears moved to 5-2 overall and 3-1 in Southland Conference play after escaping Northwestern State in Louisiana with a 31-30 victory. The Demons remain winless at 0-7 overall and 0-4 in conference play. Northwestern scored with 1:30 left in the game and then went for two. A pass was knocked away on the two-point conversion attempt, and the Bears hit the road back to Conway. This week’s opponent is a Sam Houston State team that’s 5-3 overall and 4-1 in the Southland Conference. The three losses have been by scores of 39-31 to New Mexico, 27-23 to North Dakota and 20-17 to Lamar. The five victories have been by scores of 77-0 over Oklahoma Panhandle, 45-6 over Incarnate Word, 28-17 over McNeese, 31-20 over Stephen F. Austin and 17-0 over Nicholls.

Grambling 18, UAPB 15 — The Golden Lions are a surprising 5-2 and have had two weeks to prepare for this game. Grambling comes to Pine Bluff with a record of 2-4. The Tigers began the season 0-2 with losses of 31-9 to Louisiana-Monroe, 20-14 to Louisiana Tech, 23-20 to Alabama State and 42-36 to Prairie View A&M. They have, however, turned it around with two consecutive SWAC wins by scores of 44-21 over Jackson State and 23-10 over Alabama A&M.

Ouachita 34, Southern Nazarene 17 — Ouachita has a short week with a Thursday night game in Oklahoma. The Tigers are 7-0, they’re ranked No. 5 nationally in NCAA Division II and they have won 23 consecutive conference games. But Nazarene, which is 2-5, has a way of giving Ouachita teams a tough time. In fact, the home team led in the fourth quarter two years ago before Ouachita came from behind to win. Ouachita posted a 41-14 victory over Oklahoma Baptist on Saturday as three Tiger running backs scored two touchdowns each. Ouachita led 28-0 at the half of that game.

Henderson 40, Southeastern Oklahoma 22 — The 6-1 Reddies celebrated homecoming in style last Saturday with a 48-17 victory over East Central Oklahoma. Henderson quarterback Richard Stammetti was 18 of 27 passing for 265 yards and four touchdowns. Henderson heads to Durant this week to do battle with a Southeastern Oklahoma team that has struggled to a 1-6 record. Southeastern fell by 42 points to Southern Arkansas last Saturday. The Reddies just have to be sure they aren’t looking ahead to a final three-game stretch that will see them play UAM, Southern Arkansas and Ouachita.

Southern Arkansas 47, East Central Oklahoma 23 — The Muleriders improved to 6-1 with that 49-7 victory in Magnolia over Southeastern Oklahoma. SAU led 28-0 at the half of that game. With his 63rd victory at the school, Bill Keopple became the all-time winningest coach in SAU history. The Muleriders held the Savage Storm to a negative three yards rushing and shouldn’t have any problem in Ada this Saturday afternoon against East Central Oklahoma.

Oklahoma Baptist 30, UAM 27 — Oklahoma Baptist is the best of the six Oklahoma teams in the GAC and has one of the conference’s top quarterbacks. That could spell trouble for the 5-2 Boll Weevils, who posted a 31-28 victory over Southern Nazarene last Saturday in Monticello. Southern Nazarene led 20-7 at the half of that game. Oklahoma Baptist is 3-4 but could easily be 5-2 following close losses to Henderson and Southern Arkansas. The Bison even scored 33 points on the vaunted Harding defense.

Harding 44, Northwestern Oklahoma 20 — The Bisons have won six consecutive games since losing the season opener to Ouachita. Last Saturday saw a 45-14 win over Southwestern Oklahoma. The Bisons had 504 rushing yards on 68 carries and led 31-0 at halftime. It’s a long trip to Alva, but don’t expect 2-5 Northwestern Oklahoma to present much of a challenge. The Bisons don’t play another team with a winning record this year.

Southwestern Oklahoma 26, Arkansas Tech 16 — Tech finally got its first win of the season last Saturday in Russellville. The final score was 21-14 over Northwestern Oklahoma in a game that was tied 7-7 after three quarters of play. The Wonder Boys had a 55-yard fumble recovery to take the lead. Southwestern is 2-5 but usually plays well (the Bulldogs led Ouachita in the fourth quarter before losing) at home in Weatherford.

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