WASHINGTON -- The U.S. economy slowed to a modest growth rate of 1.9% in the summer as consumer spending downshifted and businesses continued to trim their investments in response to trade-war uncertainty and a weakening global economy.
The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that the July-September performance for the gross domestic product, the economy's total output of goods and services, was just below the 2% rate of growth in the second quarter.
Economists had been forecasting a much bigger slowdown with fears gross domestic product could slump to 1.4% or less given a number of head winds.
Still, the growth far below the 3%-plus increases that President Donald Trump has set as a benchmark to demonstrate that his policies are succeeding in lifting the economy above the 2.2% growth during President Barack Obama's tenure.
Consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of economic activity, grew at a solid 2.9% rate in the third quarter, but it was still a slowdown after a 4.6% surge in the second quarter.
Some economists believe growth could slow further in the current October-December quarter and into next year, given all the economic risks.
"We see GDP momentum softening ... as global head winds, lingering policy uncertainty and squeezed profits erode employment growth and confidence," said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
Other analysts emphasized that the economy remained rooted in solid ground.
"If I saw cracks in the consumer sector, I would be worried, but I don't see that yet," said Ben Herzon, executive director of U.S. economics at Macroeconomic Advisers, a forecasting firm. "The economy is not slowing into a recession."
There were signs the trade battle and weak global growth were taking a toll as businesses cut back on their investment spending for a second straight quarter in the face of rising uncertainty. Business investment in structures plunged at a 15.3% rate in the third quarter after a sharp 11.1% drop in the second quarter.
Residential investment, which had been falling for six quarters, finally saw an increase, rising at a 5.1% rate, a gain that reflected the impact lower mortgage rates from the Federal Reserve's rate cuts were having on sales and construction plans.
Government spending slowed to a growth rate of 2%, down from a 4.8% gain in the second quarter, with federal spending and state and local government spending all slowing.
The trade deficit, which has widened as Chinese retaliatory tariffs have hurt farm sales, trimmed gross domestic product growth by about 0.1 percentage point in the third quarter.
Growth this year is forecast to come in around 2.3%, down from 2.9% last year. Many analysts are forecasting a further slowdown to GDP growth of around 1.5% in 2020. That would be a disappointment to the president, who has repeatedly proclaimed that his economic policies featuring tax cuts, deregulation and tough enforcement of trade agreements would lift the country out of the doldrums of the slowest economic expansion in the post World War II period.
Growth last year was boosted by Trump's $1.5 billion tax cut passed in 2017 and billions of dollars in extra government spending approved last year.
Without that support, economists had forecast a slowdown this year. They also say that Trump's trade war with China, by disrupting supply chains and hurting business confidence, will shave about a half-percentage point from the already slower GDP figure.
The president, however, has blamed the Federal Reserve for the weaker growth, calling Fed officials "boneheads" for raising rates four times last year and being slow to cut rates this year.
The central bank on Wednesday cut its key policy rate for a third time this year as an added insurance policy against a recession. While the Fed indicated that it did not plan to cut rates again unless the economic outlook worsens further, many economists believe a slowing economy will force it to reduce rates again, maybe as soon as its next meeting in December.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said he does not have a recession in his forecast, but a downturn can't be ruled out, especially if the United States and China do not achieve a deal that keeps further tariff increases from going into effect. That would slow GDP growth even further.
"President Trump's trade war is doing significant damage to the economy," Zandi said.
Word from Trump that the United States and China are close to completing what he calls "Phase 1" of an agreement helped calm some of the roiling anxiety swirling around trade relations. But there have been no substantive details on what a pact would include, and analysts remain wary that this potential breakthrough, like previous ones, could be followed by an abrupt policy reversal from the White House.
"There's been a big drop in business confidence, across the board," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "This 'Phase 1' thing is trivial compared to enormous obstacles."
Information for this article was contributed by Martin Crutsinger of The Associated Press and by Patricia Cohen of The New York Times.
Business on 10/31/2019
Print Headline: U.S. economy grows at 1.9% rate in 3Q