Once upon a long-ago time, when the national political news focused on Arkansas instead of Iowa--the news wasn't good then, either--we were tempted to leave this column blank and put this sentence somewhere in the white background of news space: "We just don't know what to say."
Then we thought of something to say. So we've never been able to use that bit. But after what happened, or didn't happen, at the Hawkeye caucki the other night, we're tempted again.
But then we thought of something to say. That's the thing about opinion writers--they're never speechless. More's the pity.
Let's keep things in perspective. One of the broadcast professionals asked Tuesday morning: "Is this the death of Iowa?" Goodness, not death! Anything but that! The hyperbole reminds us of a captain who once told a lieutenant in training that the young officer had made a fatal mistake. What he meant was dreadful, for nobody had actually died. And for all its embarrassment, what happened in Iowa is only politics, not life-and-death stuff.
Now then, some thoughts:
• As this was written Tuesday, nobody knows who won the Iowa caucuses. Or better said, who lost. Because about three campaigns might claim a win depending on expectations.
The app that was supposed to tally all the votes didn't "app" correctly. So the Democratic Party was trying to hurry out some results by late Tuesday afternoon or early evening. The state chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party told colleagues that officials might release partial numbers from certain precincts. (See today's front page for the latest.) The chairman even said this on a conference call: "We want to get some results out there."
Heavens, why? It seems the damage has been done, and to rush the numbers now would only compound the embarrassment, should they prove faulty.
Again.
• Remember, this isn't the first time things have gone sideways in Iowa. Four years ago, Hillary Clinton was supposed to walk away with this win, but Bernie Sanders all but tied her. In some precincts he did tie her, and delegates were given to Hillary Clinton after coin flips, which made the Bernie Bros even more apoplectic than usual. And in 2012, Mitt Romney was declared the winner early on, only to have recounts show Rick Santorum won--by 36 votes.
Iowa apparently made reforms in the last few years to make its caucuses easier and more transparent. Note to Iowans: Those reforms didn't work. Try again.
• The Germans have a word for what many other states are feeling just now: schadenfreude. Iowa has always been sorta smug about hogging the political spotlight in the presidential nomination process. Perhaps now the other 49 states can have a debate about why such a white, cold, rural, cold, agricultural, cold northern state gets to go first every election season.
Note well: The early Iowa caucuses are not part of a centuries-long political tradition. Iowa didn't start going first until 1972. The Super Bowl has more tradition.
• The delegates awarded by Iowa's caucuses weren't mathematically important. The importance was the bounce the progressive campaigns were supposed to get by this media event. Which is why the conspiracy theorists will now be in high dudgeon. Let's say that Joe Biden, or another establishment candidate like Amy Klobuchar, had a poor showing in Iowa. Such an outcome might be overshadowed by Tuesday night's State of the Union address or the impeachment finale, which could come today. The tinfoil-hat types won't believe in coincidences. They never do.
• Of all the words written and said by the media in the last 24 hours, Karen Tumulty of The Washington Post might have had the best point: The numbers don't look good for the opposition party.
In 2008, nearly a quarter-million Democrats in Iowa launched Barack Obama into the spotlight, and later into the presidency. There was talk this year that Democrats might even be more inspired by the thought of defeating Donald Trump. Some thought that Iowa 2020, with its dozens of candidates, might break all records--perhaps even get 300,000 people to the caucuses.
"Even as the Iowa Democratic Party was trying to sort out the chaos in its reporting system, a party official announced that turnout was 'on pace' with what they had seen in 2016," Karen Tumulty wrote. "In other words, it was mediocre. About 170,000 people participated in the 2016 Iowa Democratic caucuses . . . ."
If leaders in the Democratic Party thought running against Donald Trump was good enough to inspire the masses, Iowa showed them something else.
One more thought:
• All of this is making Florida look good.
Editorial on 02/05/2020