In the days after a U.S. drone strike killed Iran's top intelligence and military operative, President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan scrambled to keep his country out of a cycle of escalation between the two powers.
Now that Iranian missiles have flown into play, some of the particular vulnerabilities of Afghanistan, which lies along Iran's northeastern border and still hosts about 13,000 U.S. military personnel on a network of bases, are on display.
"The government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan assures the people and its neighbors that, according to the security agreement with the United States, the territory of Afghanistan in no circumstances will be used against another country," Ghani said in one statement. His aides say he reiterated that message in calls with President Hassan Rouhani of Iran and with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary Mark Esper.
The Afghan leader's concerns arise from the fact that President Donald Trump in recent days warned that Iranian retaliation for the drone strike that killed Gen. Qassem Soleimani would be met by heavy force. Two U.S. military officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss operations, said the American air assets in Afghanistan have repeatedly come up in discussions over potential responses to Iran, though the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan has urged caution about such plans.
Throughout decades of war and upheaval, millions of Afghan refugees fled to Iran, where a large Afghan population remains.
Even during 18 years of a U.S. presence in Afghanistan, which Iran sees as a threat to its security, the Iranian government has largely taken a pragmatic approach.
It is very engaged with the U.S.-backed Afghan government, and has been a source of some economic support -- and, covertly, of bags of cash to influential Afghans -- even when its own economy has ailed. But it has also maintained communications with some cells of the Taliban insurgency, betting that the Taliban will outlast the U.S. military presence.
The depth of Iran's importance to Afghanistan was made clear in the public reaction of some of Afghanistan's most influential political leaders after the killing of Soleimani, a hardened security operator who spoke with many Afghan officials over the years and who sent thousands of Afghan refugees to fight on Iran's side in the war in Syria.
Former President Hamid Karzai, who came to power after the U.S. invasion and was supported by the United States during his 13 years in office, called Soleimani a "man of dignity" as he condemned the United States' strike against him. Mohammed Hanif Atmar, a former Afghan national security adviser who signed the strategic security agreement between Afghanistan and the United States, spoke of the general as a martyr.
Richard Olson, a former U.S. special envoy to Afghanistan, said that despite the high number of potential U.S. military targets in Afghanistan, Iran would be more likely to strike elsewhere -- possibly Iraq, Syria or Lebanon, where Iran has tighter control over proxy forces.
Instead, any American reaction launched from Afghan soil might put more pressure on Afghan officials than any demands by Iran, Olson said.
"If we reach that decision," he added, "then I think that pretty much means the end of the peace process in Afghanistan."
Olson was referring to renewed talks between the United States and Taliban representatives in Doha, Qatar, aimed at negotiating a U.S. military withdrawal and the eventual opening of direct talks between the Afghan government and the insurgency.
If things continue to escalate between the United States and Iran, Afghan and American officials fear that more active Iranian intervention could change the battlefield in Afghanistan.
One major concern is whether Iran might begin providing more sophisticated weaponry to the Taliban -- particularly the kind of portable anti-aircraft missiles that over 18 years of fighting had not been a factor that American and Afghan officials had to face in fighting the insurgency.
After the killing of Soleimani, a former Afghan intelligence chief, Rahmatullah Nabil, said on Twitter that it would be "no surprise" if such missile technology made its way into Taliban hands if a peace deal were to fall through.
A Section on 01/09/2020