At the point when Purdue was shut down in March, if we had needed to decide on our plans for the fall, we would have felt compelled to resume with remote instruction and keep the campus closed. For all we knew, covid-19 posed a danger across all lines of age and health status, and a place as densely populated as our campus would be defenseless against it—operations couldn’t be responsibly restarted.
We have all learned a lot since then. What would have been a reckless and scientifically unjustified decision in late March is now plainly the best option from both a scientific and a stewardship standpoint, at least for our particular institution. (We’re not alone: Two-thirds of the more than 700 colleges surveyed by the Chronicle of Higher Education have now come to the same conclusion and will reopen with in-person instruction in the fall.)
The most salient discovery the world has made during these terrible two months is that covid-19 is a very dangerous disease, specifically for the elderly and the infirm, particularly those with diabetes, hypertension, other cardiovascular illnesses, or the obesity that so frequently leads to these disorders.
The companion discovery is that this bug, so risky in one segment of the population, poses a near-zero risk to young people. Among covid-19 deaths, 99.9 percent have occurred outside the 15-24 age group; the survival rate in the 20-29 age bracket is 99.99 percent. Even assuming the United States eventually reaches 150,000 total fatalities, covid-19 as a risk to the young will rank way below accidents, cancer, heart disease and suicide. In fact, it won’t even make the top 10.
This is fundamental information for institutions with radically skewed demographic compositions. If you’re running a nursing home, it means one thing. But if you’re running a university, the science is telling you something diametrically different.
Here’s something else we’ve learned. Our students (and, one suspects, their trapped-at-home parents) overwhelmingly are eager to continue their educations, in person and on campus. We know it is not the case everywhere, but at Purdue, tuition deposits by incoming freshmen have shattered last year’s record, and re-enrollments of upper-class students are at normal levels.
We have spent every waking minute of the past eight weeks planning changes to almost everything we do—how we house and feed students and preserve the value of the tutelage and mentoring by faculty and advisers, while maintaining a safe physical distance between the two groups. A panel of scientists and clinicians is guiding our choices.
At least one-third of our staff will be required to work remotely. Our technologists have applied what they’ve learned about social distancing to redesign 700 classrooms and labs, and 9,500 dormitory rooms, all of which will be reconfigured with lower occupancy limits. All large-enrollment courses will be offered online as well as in person, to accommodate those who cannot or choose not to come to campus, and to further reduce in-class numbers.
We will test systematically and trace contacts of anyone testing positive for covid-19. We will forgo the concerts, convocations and social occasions that ordinarily enliven campus life. It will be a quieter fall without fraternity parties, but first things first.
Perhaps most important will be the cultural change on which we have to insist because, in another lesson of the coronavirus spring, nothing makes a more positive difference than personal behavior and responsibility. Wearing masks indoors and in any close-quarters space reduces viral transmission dramatically all by itself. Combined with rigorous hygiene and prudent social distancing, facial protection can probably provide more protection than all the extra disinfecting, Plexiglas-barrier installation, HVAC improvements and other measures we take.
A final thought: We recognize that not every school can or should view the decision to reopen as we do. But given what we have learned, with 45,000 students waiting and the financial wherewithal to do what’s necessary, failure to take on the job of reopening would be not only anti-scientific but also an unacceptable breach of duty.
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Mitch Daniels is president of Purdue University and a former governor of Indiana.