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Rick Lee's Oaklawn picks and analysis

by Rick Lee | April 23, 2021 at 2:28 a.m.
FILE — Horses and jockeys break from the starting gate at Oaklawn Racing Casino Resort in Hot Springs. (Democrat-Gazette file photo)

LEE’S LOCK Lord Dragon in the eighth

BEST BET Henry’s Deal in the seventh

LONG SHOT Simply Sovereign in the ninth

THURSDAY’S RESULTS xx

MEET 140-416 (33.7%)

••••confident choice

•••plenty to like

••things to like

•educated guess

1 Purse $28,000, 1 1/16 miles, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up which have never won three races, claiming $12,500

•••HENNY FLY was caught inside the final furlong in a clear second-place finish, and she was claimed by a high percentage stable and the likely pacesetter is wearing blinkers for the first time. SOUTHERN CENTS has rallied to second in two of three races at the meeting, and she is dropping in price and drew an advantageous post. MOONSHINE DANCING is moving up a condition following a clear stalk-and-pounce victory.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

2 Henny Fly;Vazquez;Diodoro;3-1

1 Southern Cents;Quinonez;Frazee;2-1

5 Moonshine Dancing;Gonzalez;Barkley;5-2

4 Gypsy Wind;WDe La Cruz;Martin;6-1

7 Dixie Loving;Garcia;Medina;5-1

3 Santa Ana Winds;Cabrera;Dixon;15-1

6 City Gone Country;Hebert;Loy;20-1

2 Purse $48,000, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, maiden claiming $50,000

••LINDSYLU pressed an honest pace and held on well to be second behind the post-time favorite in her career debut, and she is dropping into a maiden claiming race for her second try. EDEN was a fast-closing third in a strong maiden allowance race two weeks ago, which easily earned the field’s fastest Beyer figure. POLYESTER BRIDE showed excellent early speed before fading to sixth in her first race, and she may relax better running outside of rivals today.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

1 Lindsylu;Santana;Asmussen;5-2

3 Eden;Garcia;Contreras;3-1

7 Polyester Bride;Canchari;Robertson;4-1

6 Wildwood Flash;Cohen;Diodoro;5-1

2 Hennys Crazy Train;Quinonez;Von Hemel;8-1

5 Villareggia;Arrieta;Matthews;7-2

4 Seeking Honor;Bowen;Prather;20-1

3 Purse $35,000, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up which have never won two races, Arkansas-bred, claiming $25,000

••PRESLEY is dropping in class and she appears to be the speed of the speed, while making her third start after a long layoff. DO ME A FAVOR proved determined narrowly winning a $30k maiden-claiming sprint, and she is spotted well by the leading trainer and drew a favorable post. KELLY BE KRUSIN has been working well for her return from a long freshening, and she recorded a nice breeze April 18 after being a scratch last week.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

3 Presley;Quinonez;Cates;3-1

9 Do Me a Favor;Santana;Asmussen;4-1

5 Kelly Be Krusin;WDe La Cruz;Martin;10-1

1 Tailorbeswift;Arrieta;Contreras;9-2

2 Louemma;Vazquez;McKnight;6-1

8 Rachie Rach;Thompson;Dixon;7-2

7 Richness;Garcia;Swearingen;6-1

6 B’s Lil’ Bumblebee;Morales;McKellar;20-1

4 Triple Happy;Cabrera;Broberg;20-1

4 Purse $106,000, 1 mile, 3-year-olds and up which have never won three races, allowance

••NECKER ISLAND has not raced since running in the Kentucky Derby last September at Churchill, but he is battle tested in graded races and his class edge ma get him home in front. BRUDER BOB has finished second in four of his past five races, and he has competitive Beyer figures and a likely fitness edge over the top selection. LYKAN has been finishing well in sprint races at the meeting, and his fifth-place route finish two races back came against a good allowance field.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

2 Necker Island;Tohill;Hartman;2-1

6 Bruder Bob;Canchari;Robertson;5-2

4 Lykan;Garcia;Mason;4-1

5 Background;Bowen;Puhich;7-2

1 Mo’s Mojo;Santana;Morse;6-1

3 Polar Wind;Arrieta;Contreras;10-1

5 Purse $27,000, 1 mile, 3-year-olds and up, claiming $7,500

••AQUALITYINDIVIDUAL had early traffic trouble in a fourth-place finish, and he was claimed by hot connections, and the pace figures fast enough to set up his late run. SINGANDCRYINDUBAI is likely to be hustled to the front from his extreme outside post, and the Robertino Diodoro acquisition may battle for favoritism. MAJOR BROWN ships from Houston with strong Beyer figures, and he figures near the lead from gate to wire.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

3 Aqualityindividual;Cabrera;Broberg;4-1

11 Singandcryindubai;Cohen;Diodoro;5-1

4 Major Brown;Santana;Asmussen;5-2

2 Collection;Wales;Green;6-1

8 Gospel Abe;Vazquez;Villafranco;15-1

10 Storminside;Garcia;Mason;10-1

1 Pop Life;Gonzalez;Garcia;8-1

6 Have a Plan;Arrieta;Hornsby;8-1

5 Carte Blanche;Torres;Cox;15-1

7 Flashymeister;Hebert;Williams;30-1

9 Seek N Justice;FDe La Cruz;Litfin;20-1

6 Purse $30,000, 6 furlongs, 4-year-olds and up, starter allowance

••FLAT LUCKY is dropping in class following consecutive late-running third-place finishes, and he figures a big threat on a fast or wet track. COROT crossed the wire less than a length in front of the top selection, and he does have better early speed. HE’S MUNNIE is a nine-time winner who ships from Will Rogers following a clear second-place finish, and he picks up leading rider Ricardo Santana Jr.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

5 Flat Lucky;Cabrera;Moquett;5-2

7 Corot;Torres;Cox;6-1

8 He’s Munnie;Santana;Hartman;4-1

2 Royal Commission;FDe La Cruz;DiVito;6-1

3 Clear the Mine;Vazquez;Joseph;5-1

1 Coworker;Arrieta;Contreras;3-1

4 Drill’s Li’l Man;Gonzalez;Chleborad;10-1

6 Hatties Jewel;Tohill;Martin;15-1

7 Purse $105,000, 5 1/2 furlongs, fillies and mares, 4-year-olds and up, allowance optional claiming

•••HENRY’S DEAL overcame a troubled start rallying to win an entry-level allowance sprint in a return from a long vacation, and she is back at a similar condition and repeats with an improved start. RAGGEDY ANNIE was heavily bet and did not disappoint in a late-running starter allowance win, and the leading trainer spots his horses where they can win. MISS ANTIOCH is a consistent Arkansas-bred filly, who is stake-placed at the meeting and will be forwardly placed.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

4 Henry’s Deal;Cohen;Diodoro;8-5

3 Raggedy Annie;Santana;Asmussen;5-2

5 Miss Antioch;Quinonez;Milligan;5-1

6 Red Bottom Rebel;Arrieta;Puhich;6-1

1 Whistlin’ Dixie;Morales;Lauer;6-1

2 Euro Me;Cabrera;Loy;8-1

8 Baileston Lassie;Vazquez;Garcia;20-1

7 Undecidedcertainty;Harr;Cline;20-1

8 Purse $38,000, 1 1/16 miles, 4-year-olds and up, claiming $17,500

••••LORD DRAGON has been racing well at a significantly higher level, and he figures closer to the early leaders in this field. LAUGHING FOX is a local stake winner who has three victories at Oaklawn, and he is also dropping down after four disappointing races this season. CANDY CARLOS may be able to control and moderate pace, and he knows how to win when things go his way up front.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

8 Lord Dragon;Cohen;Diodoro;2-1

3 Laughing Fox;Santana;Asmussen;3-1

6 Candy Carlos;Torres;Shorter;6-1

4 Blueridge Traveler;Cabrera;Moquett;4-1

1 Pickford;Vazquez;McKnight;8-1

2 Here Comes Doc;FDe La Cruz;Miller;8-1

5 Epic;Tohill;Martin;12-1

9 Sonny Smack;Canchari;Von Hemel;12-1

7 Wherewegoin;Morales;Lauer;20-1

9 Purse $106,000, 6 furlongs, fillies, 3-year-olds, allowance optional claiming

••SIMPLY SOVEREIGN was stake-placed at two turns in December at Remington, and the lightly raced filly has not sprinted since pressing a swift pace and drawing off to a seven-length debut win. SOUTHERN GRAYCE has enough speed to hold his inside position, and she is spotted to contend after finishing fifth in the Purple Martin. DEVILISH WIT rallied to fourth in the Purple Martin, and she switches to the leading rider and may go favored.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

2 Simply Sovereign;Cabrera;Asmussen;6-1

1 Southern Grayce;FDe La Cruz;Cox;5-2

5 Devilish Wit;Santana;Asmussen;2-1

7 Becca’s Rocket;Cohen;Gelner;4-1

3 Spun d’Etat;Bridgmohan;Amoss;6-1

6 Heart Full of Soul;Arrieta;Robertson;6-1

4 Miss Twenty;Torres;Lauer;12-1

10 Purse $27,000, 1 mile, 3-year-olds and up, Arkansas-bred, maiden claiming $12,500

•••DOVER LIGHTS has raced evenly in two useful sprint races, is taking a big drop in class, and he is bred top and bottom to improve at the distance. EXPLOSIVE HUMOUR has two competitive races at a higher classification at the meeting, and he drew inside and should be close to the pace. RANDOM AFFAIR is an experienced two-turn runner who exits consecutive front-running third-place finishes.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

7 Dover Lights;Santana;Ortiz;5-2

3 Explosive Humour;WDe La Cruz;Martin;9-2

4 Random Affair;Cabrera;Morse;7-2

10 Risky Situation;Harr;Cline;8-1

1 Lou’s Arrow;Tohill;Martin;6-1

1a Spirit Soul;Tohill;Martin;6-1

5 Shine Jack’s Dream;Fletcher;Loy;12-1

11 Sharp Willy;Bowen;Prather;10-1

9 Heros R Cowboys;Camacho;Martin;12-1

6 Moonshine Moment;Arrieta;Deville;10-1

8 Oregon County;Morales;Rhea;20-1

2 Pure Iron;Hebert;Gonzalez;15-1

Exotic possibilities

The first race offers a daily double and I like Southern Cents and Henny Fly in the first, and Lindsylu and Eden in the second. The seventh race begins a Pick-4 and Raggedy Annie and Henry’s Deal should be adequate cover. Lord Dragon is a single for me in the eighth. My top three selections in the ninth must be used. I’ll finish the wager by using only Dover Lights in the 10th.

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