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Rick Lee's Oaklawn picks and analysis

by Rick Lee | April 29, 2021 at 2:20 a.m.
FILE — Horses and jockeys break from the starting gate at Oaklawn Racing Casino Resort in Hot Springs. (Democrat-Gazette file photo)

LEE'S LOCK Jackman in the third

BEST BET Pat Daddy in the second

LONG SHOT Belfast Boy in the fourth

WEDNESDAY'S RESULTS 2-9 (22.2%)

MEET 155-465 (33.3%)

CONFIDENCE RATINGS

••••confident choice

•••plenty to like

••things to like

•educated guess

1 Purse $27,000, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 4-year-olds and up, claiming $7,500

SHACKLEFORD COUNTY••• was beaten only a neck in a $25,000 claiming race, and the front-running mare is taking a significant drop for high-percentage connections. ETERNAL ENDEAVOUR ships from Santa Anita after three consecutive in-the-money finishes at a higher claiming price. FINAL FORM has excellent early speed. He won five of eight races in 2020 and is dropping to win.

PP HORSEJOCKEYTRAINERODDS

2 Shackleford CountyCohenDiodoro9-5

2b Eternal EndeavourCohenDiodoro9-5

3 Final FormWDe La CruzMartin7-2

1a SuzArrietaBroberg9-2

1 Brechin's CommandTorresBroberg9-2

5 Pretti SaviCanchariRobertson5-1

4 Imaginary MusicBowenGarcia12-1

6 Friendly and KindWalesRiecken8-1

8 Potra LizaCabreraHartman8-1

7 Backseat PromisesMedinaGladd15-1

2 Purse $29,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds and up, claiming $10,000

PAT DADDY•••• is a consistent front-runner who is dropping to the lowest price of his career. He has a strong local record and also loves a wet track. ROCK ME was forwardly placed in a third-place finish at today's claiming price, and he is making his second start for leading trainer Steve Asmussen. KRISTO splashed her way to a starter allowance victory back in February, and he appears to be the best finisher in the field.

PP HORSEJOCKEYTRAINERODDS

1 Pat DaddyCohenMcKnight5-2

2 Rock MeCabreraAsmussen7-2

7 KristoArrietaCompton4-1

8 Johnny ObviousBowenMcKnight9-2

3 Mine My TimeTorresVillafranco6-1

6 Flash AttackVazquezDiodoro5-1

5 Bravura CreekMoralesWitt20-1

1a Ghostly WhoCohenDiodoro5-2

4 May We AllCanchariRosin15-1

3 Purse $40,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds, starter optional claiming

JACKMAN•••• contested a fast pace before drawing off to a 5-length win against older rivals, and he is spotted to repeat in a race restricted to 3-year-olds. ROLLING FORK followed a 7-length maiden win with a third-place finish in the $150K Rainbow, and he is versatile and improving. IMA BLING CAT earned a competitive Beyer figure in a 10-length maiden-claiming win, which was recorded over a wet track.

PP HORSEJOCKEYTRAINERODDS

9 JackmanTorresBroberg9-2

2 Rolling ForkVazquezOrtiz5-1

1 Ima Bling CatArrietaBroberg4-1

4 Spotted BullCohenDiodoro5-1

5 Clearly MadGarciaMorse12-1

3 Frosted PrayerCabreraAsmussen3-1

7 Unidentified ManWDe La CruzCompton20-1

6 In the ArchCamachoMedina20-1

8 RedivivusQuinonezWitt6-1

4 Purse $35,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds and up, maiden claiming $30,000

BELFAST BOY•• has not raced since September, but he has earned Beyer figures above par for this class level. He has a series of swift works for a winning stable. WE BE THERE had to overcome a sluggish break from the gate in a second-place debut. He is back at the same level and may benefit from a positive rider change. BUBBA CABALLO returns from a layoff for winning connections, and he finished second in his career debut last season at Oaklawn.

PP HORSEJOCKEYTRAINERODDS

2 Belfast BoyBowenPuhich5-1

8 We Be ThereArrietaHartman7-2

7 Bubba CaballoTorresMoquett6-1

1 Khaki JackCabreraBroberg9-2

6 Flimflam ManCanchariRosin15-1

5 Smack AttackMedinaGladd4-1

4 Twirling RosesEvansRobertson10-1

3 Jack Luvs NovaVazquezMoysey8-1

9 FixationCamachoRussell20-1

5 Purse $29,500, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up who have never won two races, claiming $20,000

SHESALITTLE EDGY•• was bet down to odds-on favoritism and did not disappoint while winning a key race at Turfway. A case can be made she is better on dirt than synthetic surfaces. ENCANTA is cutting back to a sprint distance after contesting the pace and tiring in a route, which was her first race in 19 months. MISS MESS defeated bottom level maidens by better than 3 lengths, and she was claimed by the leading trainer.

PP HORSEJOCKEYTRAINERODDS

3 Shesalittle EdgyArrietaContreras9-2

8 EncantaBowenGarcia5-1

7 Miss MessTorresAsmussen4-1

5 Miss Moon PieWDe La CruzHartman10-1

4 Millard's CometCabreraCalhoun3-1

2 Letters to BelleLopezRuiz30-1

6 JustatapinHarrChleborad10-1

9 Kilbarry LadyVazquezVillafranco6-1

1 Maiden RockCohenRichard6-1

6 Purse $105,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-old fillies, allowance optional claiming

DECADE•• showed speed and determination in two races as a juvenile filly in Kentucky. She is treated with Lasix for the first time and figures stronger and faster as a 3-year-old. NOVEL SQUALL was an upset winner at a similar condition April 11. She is a three-time winner and proven on a wet track. MELTING SNOW is a two-time winner at the meeting. She is versatile and owns competitive Beyer figures.

PP HORSEJOCKEYTRAINERODDS

8 DecadeCabreraAsmussen2-1

6 Novel SquallArrietaOrtiz3-1

4 Melting SnowBridgmohanAmoss6-1

5 FouetteTorresAsmussen5-2

3 Dana's BeautyCohenMaker8-1

2 Shedialed BurreauxVazquezVillafranco10-1

7 Emerald PrincessCanchariRobertson12-1

1 Lady AstridHarrCline20-1

7 Purse $29,000, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, Arkansas-bred, maiden claiming $20,000

LIFE OF SATURDAYS•• broke last before making a determined rally in a photo-finish loss just 12 days ago, and she has proven wet track ability. ROSE MARIE B was forwardly placed while caught four-wide in a vastly improved second-place finish. She is lightly raced and eligible to show more. MY GRACE is dropping into a maiden claiming race for the first time, and she does possess good early speed.

PP HORSEJOCKEYTRAINERODDS

10 Life of SaturdaysCabreraDiodoro5-2

12 Rose Marie BArrietaPeitz3-1

6 My GraceTorresMoysey5-1

9 Tapit RightQuinonezMilligan6-1

2 Miss PronounceCanchariWitt8-1

7 Hamazing LaceGarciaMason8-1

13 Sailaway and HideLopezRhea4-1

1 Sweet HolinessHarrLoy15-1

14 Special AngelMoralesSmith12-1

8 Jeri DawnCamachoFires20-1

4 MarciamarciamarciaWDe La CruzMcKellar15-1

3 Morning ValentineVazquezVillafranco15-1

11 Cadillac LadyFletcherFeilner30-1

5 Princess StrategyWalesJackson30-1

8 Purse $108,000, 1 mile, fillies and mares, 4-year-olds and up, allowance optional claiming

W W FITZY••• had blinkers removed, and the front-running mare responded with an authoritative 7-length win. She appears improved for trainer Cipriano Contreras. HEADLAND is a multiple stakes winning sprinter who is at the top of her game, but she is also unproven around two turns. JILTED BRIDE has won consecutive route races at the meeting, and the pace will be fast enough to set up her patented late run.

PP HORSEJOCKEYTRAINERODDS

5 W W FitzyArrietaContreras9-5

6 HeadlandVazquezHobby2-1

3 Jilted BrideCabreraAsmussen3-1

2 Miss BiglyGarciaD'Amato5-1

1 Kim KTorresAsmussen6-1

4 Best Kept SecretHarrCline15-1

9 Purse $36,000, 1 mile, 4-year-olds and up, starter allowance

EXULTING•• was a clear winner at this same condition April 18, and the consistent gelding has won three of eight races on a wet surface. HONORING MAJOR chased the top selection around the track in a competitive second-place finish. The beaten even-money favorite receives a 7-pound swing in the weights. WAGON BOSS has finished no worse than second in four races at the meeting while earning Beyer figures that stack up well against the major contenders in the race.

PP HORSEJOCKEYTRAINERODDS

3 ExultingVazquezMaker7-2

6 Honoring MajorCohenDiodoro4-1

7 Wagon BossCabreraVance6-1

11 DefenderGarciaMason4-1

4 Red AgainQuinonezShorter9-2

9 Omen of ChangeBowenDiodoro8-1

8 Off the MedsHamiltonRosin15-1

2 TashkentTorresVillafranco12-1

1 Perfect Ice StormArrietaSadler12-1

10 Bobby BabyCanchariRosin20-1

5 Paddy O'DiniThompsonMartin30-1

12 AcostaCamachoRussell20-1

EXOTIC POSSIBILITIES

A Pick-3 starts in the second race, and PAT DADDY appears to be a single. I also like JACKMAN as a single in the third race, and I recommend using my top four selections in the fourth. The seventh race drew a full field, and I recommend putting LIFE OF SATURDAYS on the top of a trifecta wager. I'll use my next six selections in the place spot, and selections two through four in the show spot.

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