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Rick Lee's Oaklawn picks and analysis

by Rick Lee | February 11, 2021 at 2:18 a.m.
FILE — Horses and jockeys break from the starting gate at Oaklawn Racing Casino Resort in Hot Springs. (Democrat-Gazette file photo)

LEE’S LOCK Scarred in the ninth

BEST BET Could You in the seventh

LONG SHOT All Shacked Up in the fifth

SUNDAY’S RESULTS 2-9 (22.2%)

MEET 25-90 (27.8%)

CONFIDENCE RATINGS

* * * *confident choice

* * * plenty to like

* * things to like

*educated guess

1 Purse $22,000, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, maiden claiming $10,000

CINCO WEST set the pace in a clear second-place wet-track finish at Remington, and she is dropping to the bottom of the local maiden ranks. SOUPER CAPACITY raced close to a moderate pace in a fourth-place return to the races, and the beaten post-time favorite is wearing blinkers for the first time. FRENCHIE FROU FROU is dropping to the lowest price of her career, and her local breezes have been good. She does have a poor habit of breaking slowly.

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS

1 Cinco West Eramia Smith 2-1

2 Souper Capacity Bowen McKnight 5-2

3 Frenchie Frou Frou Arrieta Barkley 7-2

7 Dede’s Trick Thompson Frazee 6-1

6 Wicked Chocolate Fletcher Loy 9-2

1a Slewachit Morales Smith 2-1

4 B Rewarding Camacho Rhea 20-1

2 Purse $32,000, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 4-year-olds and up, claiming $20,000

RAINTREE STARLET finished 2020 with a tough-luck defeat at Churchill, and she was claimed by a high-percentage stable. She has won two of her three races at Oaklawn. FINAL FORM splashed her way to a victory in March at Oaklawn, and the five-time winner in 2020 is strictly the one to catch. JUST FLY had a three-race winning streak snapped when competing against better Nov. 21 at Churchill. She is back at a proper level and has proven wet track ability.

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS

4 Raintree Starlet Cohen Diodoro 5-2

2 Final Form Hamilton Gladd 7-2

3 Just Fly Cabrera Hawley 3-1

1 Scarlet Position Vazquez Villafranco 4-1

5 Madison Way Tohill Martin 6-1

6 J P’s Gladys Felix Puhl 12-1

7 Texas Music Arrieta Garcia 8-1

3 Purse $37,000, 6 furlongs, fillies, 3-year-olds, maiden claiming $30,000

MELTING SNOW was a convincing career debut winner on a sloppy track at Louisiana Downs. She is dropping into a claiming race after contesting the pace and tiring in an allowance race Jan. 24. BENSON ships from Fair Grounds after a clear stalk-and-pounce debut win, and her subsequent breezes have been encouraging. BOSSY MOMENT has not raced since September, but she was consistently competitive at Prairie Meadows and Churchill. She figures to be stronger and faster as a 3-year-old filly.

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS

4 Melting Snow Vazquez Broberg 9-2

7 Benson Cabrera Amoss 7-2

8 Bossy Moment Santana Asmussen 3-1

3 It’sfiftyshadetime Bridgmohan Amoss 5-2

1 Avabell Mojica Broberg 12-1

2 Clear Steps Arrieta Garcia 8-1

6 She’s My Ride Hamilton Mason 10-1

5 Some Would Say Loveberry Rosin 15-1

4 Purse $30,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds, maiden claiming $30,000

HANKS is a first-time starter from the powerful stable of trainer Brad Cox. He shows 10 weeks of good workouts, and he is spotted to win in a maiden-claimer. STREET TOLL has earned competitive Beyer figures while competing in maiden allowance races, and he has displayed a consistent late run. COLD AS HELL earned the field’s fastest Beyer figure in a fifth-place finish Jan. 24, which came over a muddy track. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has been hot of late.

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS

1 Hanks FDe La Cruz Cox 3-1

6 Street Toll Arrieta Hollendorfer 10-1

3 Cold as Hell Cabrera Lukas 10-1

5 Megatap Santana Asmussen 9-5

8 Bode’s Light Camacho Garcia 9-2

4 No Classiva Medina Milligan 8-1

2 Top Star Cohen Calhoun 5-1

7 Biker Tim Eramia Smith 20-1

5 Purse $24,000, 1 mile, 4-year-olds and up, starter allowance

ALL SHACKED UP contested a fast pace in a sharp second-place sprint tune-up, and he is a restricted stake winner at today’s two-turn distance. CHICORY BLUE may have moved too soon in a third-place return from a freshening. He was claimed by winning connections, and he figures to be a late threat in a field with plenty of speed. SINGANDCRYINDUBAI led past every pole but the last one in a second-place finish at Fair Grounds. He has recorded a subsequent bullet work at Oaklawn.

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS

3 All Shacked Up Tohill Hartman 10-1

5 Chicory Blue Mojica Broberg 5-1

7 Singandcryindubai Cabrera Amoss 4-1

4 Kristo Gonzalez Green 6-1

9 Giant Influence Cohen Diodoro 3-1

8 Witch Doctor Arrieta Morse 5-2

1 Strate Remark Vazquez McKnight 10-1

6 Roar of the Lion Hamilton Swearingen 15-1

2 Always a Catch Loveberry Martin 30-1

6 Purse $30,000, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, Arkansas-bred, maiden claiming $30,000

LORI’S EYES showed good speed in three races last season at Oaklawn, and she is working well for a stable having an excellent meeting. COUVERTURE had to overcome a poor start in a fourth-place debut last season at Oaklawn. The presence of top rider Ricardo Santana Jr. suggests she is ready to contend. CYBER AFFAIR finished second in March in her only race on a wet track, and she is the best finisher in the field.

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS

7 Lori’s Eyes WDe La Cruz Martin 3-1

6 Couverture Santana Moquett 4-1

5 Cyber Affair Eramia Martin 6-1

2 Richness Hamilton Swearingen 8-1

11 Wish for Candy Morales Rhea 6-1

4 Spilled Perfume Arrieta Barkley 8-1

8 Starrgarita Torres Prather 10-1

10 Angel Arkie Tohill Martin 8-1

13 Denali Rocket Loveberry Martin 12-1

9 Tyne After Tyne Harr Fires 12-1

12 Allofourdreams FDe La Cruz Cangemi 30-1

3 Caddo Queen Court Deatherage 12-1

1 Amelia’s Bonnet Gonzalez Gonzalez 30-1

7 Purse $22,000, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 4-year-olds and up, claiming $7,500

COULD YOU has led from gate to wire in three of her last four races. She is the controlling speed and strictly the one to beat. WAR BALLAD splashed her way to a 5-length recent win at Mountaineer, and she did race well at a higher class level last season at Oaklawn. NAUTICAL GEM has won two of three races on a wet track, and she is dropping to the lowest price of her career after a one-paced effort at Delta.

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS

9 Could You Cohen Diodoro 5-2

3 War Ballad Eramia Morsey 8-1

7 Nautical Gem Santana Asmussen 9-2

1 Triple Scout Morales Mason 5-1

1a Showit Vazquez Mason 5-1

4 Fleeta Belle Loveberry Villafranco 4-1

5 Hush Y’all Harr Cline 12-1

6 Entrusted Camacho Lauer 8-1

2 Sheshed Bowen Holthus 20-1

11 Sweet Tatum Tohill Martin 15-1

8 Mia Promessa WDe La Cruz Puhl 12-1

10 Brechin’s Command Cabrera Broberg 12-1

8 Purse $85,000, 1 mile, fillies and mares, 4-year-olds and up, allowance optional claiming

VILLANELLE followed a determined maiden win at Keeneland with an emphatic allowance victory at Churchill. The rapidly improving filly loves the distance and has been sharp in morning works. PALIO FLAG has been no worse than second in four races. She possesses good early speed and has a two-turn pedigree. W W FITZY has won six of 12 races on the main track while earning competitive Beyer figures, and she returns to the main after consecutive races on turf.

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS

2 Villanelle Rocco Cox 2-1

9 Palio Flag Santana Asmussen 5-2

5 W W Fitzy Arrieta Becker 12-1

6 Fire Coral Vazquez Asmussen 8-1

7 O Seraphina Cabrera Sharp 9-2

3 Sara Sea FDe La Cruz Lukas 8-1

1 Queen Bridget Cohen Ortiz 10-1

8 Hello Darling WDe La Cruz Martin 12-1

4 Ghaaleb the Great Gonzalez Becker 12-1

9 Purse $84,000, 1 1/16 miles, 3-year-olds, allowance

SCARRED lost a late lead when narrowly defeated at this class and distance at Churchill, and he was flattered when the winner finished a fast-closing third in the Grade III Sam F Davis at Tampa. LEBLON circled rivals wide late on the second turn in a determined late-running maiden win at Churchill, and his subsequent breezes have been upbeat. TWILIGHT BLUE is a stake-placed sprinter who is in good form. He drew a favorable post and is bred to run this far.

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS

6 Scarred Santana Asmussen 3-1

4 Leblon Court Lobo 8-1

1 Twilight Blue Arrieta Sharp 5-1

5 Riptide Rock Garcia Hollendorfer 12-1

8 Inspector Frost Rocco Cox 5-2

9 Woodhouse Cabrera Trout 8-1

2 Oncoming Train Cohen DiVito 15-1

7 Cousin Larry Torres Jones 8-1

11 Gagoots Bowen DiVito 10-1

10 Lizard King Vazquez Moquett 12-1

3 Bravo Bravo Emigh Vanden Berg 30-1

Exotic possibilities

All Shacked Up is an interesting horse to key in a fifth-race trifecta, and since he’ll be a price it’s wise to spread out in the second and third spots. The sixth race begins a Pick-4, and my top three selections need to be on the ticket. The seventh race may have a single in Could You. The eighth race has talent, and I recommend going four deep. I really like Scarred in the ninth, but I’ll also use long-shot possibility Leblon as well.

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